氣候變遷對高屏溪流域崩塌潛勢之影響評估

Effects of Climate Change on the Potential of the Landslides in the Basin of Kaoping Stream

范正成(Jen-Chen Fan) ； 楊智翔(Chih-Hsiang Yang) ； 張世駿(Shih-Chun Chang) ； 黃效禹(Hsiao-Yu Huang) ； 郭嘉峻(Jia-Jun Guo)

《中華水土保持學報》 44卷4期 (2013/12) Pp. 335-350

https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.201312_44(4).0007

摘要

為探討氣候變遷對高屏溪流域崩塌潛勢之影響，本研究透過地文因子蒐集與篩選檢定、降雨參數選定，以邏輯斯回歸建置崩塌潛勢評估模式，並結合3種GCMs模式及3種未來情境進行分析。結果顯示，與崩塌發生最為相關之5項地文因子及降雨參數分別為岩性、坡度、坡向、水系比、道路比及連續二日雨量。所建置之崩塌潛勢模式，其準確率可達80%以上。經綜合評估，INCM3模式之結果對未來之衝擊最大，其中又以INCM3模式B1情境短期（2010～2039年）之結果最符合現況；利用此模式及情境推估短期之結果與基期（1961～1990年）相比，「極高」崩塌發生潛勢之增加面積達98%。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 崩塌 ； 發生潛勢 ； 地文因子 ； 邏輯斯回歸

並列摘要

To investigate the effects of climate change on the potential of the landslides in the basin of Kaoping stream, in this study, physiographic factors are collected and tested; rainfall parameters are selected; logistic regression method is used to establish the model for evaluating the potential of landslides; and 3 GCMs models and 3 future scenarios are used for analysis. Results show that 5 physiographic factors and 1 rainfall parameters are most highly correlated with the potential of landslides. They are the slope steepness, the area ratio of dip slope, the distance to fault, the road ratio and the rainfall amount of consecutive 2 days. The accuracy of the model established in this study reaches 80%. The impact for the future of the simulated results for the short term period (2010~2039) using the INCM3 model is found the greatest and the B1 scenario is found most in accordance with the real conditions. Using the developed model in this study to evaluate the potential of the landslide for the short term period, it is found the area of the highest potential of landslides increase 98%, compared with the potential of landslide in the baseline period (1961~1990).

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； landslide ； potential of occurrence ； physiographic factor ； logistic regression