國際環境對中共核武政策發展的影響

The Impact of the International Situation on the Evolution of China's Nuclear Force Policies

陳文賢(Vincent Wen-Hsien Chen)

《問題與研究》 38卷2期 (1999/02) Pp. 1-20

https://doi.org/10.30390/ISC.199902_38(2).0001

摘要

冷戰時代美國對中共的核武威脅、中蘇關係的惡化等國際因素促使中共發展核武。然而中共在核武的質與量方面無法與美蘇兩超強相比，因此在核戰略上採取模糊的核威攝戰略以確保不受美蘇兩國的核威脅。不過在冷戰結束後，一方面國際間對禁止包括核武在內的大規模毀滅性武器及科技擴散的做法更為積極，一方面又有印度及巴基斯坦的核試及北韓發展核武的可能性，中共面臨此一新的國際核子情勢，勢必會隨國際核子情勢的變遷而在其核武政策及參與國際限核的作為方面有所調整。而中共與美國的合作應會是在促進國際核子穩定及維護區域安全方面有所進展的主要因素。

關鍵字

中國 ； 中共 ； 核武政策 ； 禁止核武擴散條約 ； 全面禁止核試條約 ； 飛彈科技管制機制 ； 核子武器

並列摘要

China's initial development of unclear weapons was affected by such factors as the American nuclear threat during the Korean War and the deterioration of relations between China and the Soviet Union in the 1960s. Restrained by her own limited nuclear forces, China has adopted an ambiguous strategy of nuclear deterrent to cope with the external nuclear threat. Since the end of the Cold War, the international community has made increasing efforts to prevent weapons of massive destruction from proliferation. China acceded to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1992 and signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996. In May 1998, both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear tests, which were regarded as a severe blow to nuclear nonproliferation efforts. Yet, any plans to expand China's nuclear capabilities and to change her nuclear strategy accordingly will certainly affect the international nuclear stability and regional security in the Asia-Pacific.

並列關鍵字

China ； nuclear strategy ； deterrent ； nuclear weapons ； CTBT ； NPT ； MTCR

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