透過您的圖書館登入
IP:44.192.107.255
  • 期刊

Is China a Challenger? The Predicament of China's Reformist Initiatives in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

中國是個挑戰者嗎?中國在亞投行推動改革倡議的困境

摘要


This paper assesses whether the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB)signals China's reformist intention in the area of international development. I use both descriptive and inferential statistics to compare power distribution in the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank(ADB), and the AIIB, and the composition of the AIIB membership. Evidence shows that there is no obvious structural difference in voting power among the three banks. The major difference between them is that China is the most powerful state in the AIIB. For the time being, at least, the AIIB does not signal Beijing's intention to reform the current system. Instead, the bank seems to be an instrument for China to compete with established international financial institutions. However, Beijing may be faced with several challenges. First, dissatisfied members of the World Bank will not find a remedy for the organization's shortcomings in the AIIB. The problem of unequal representation structure remains. Second, the AIIB is unlikely to facilitate formation of a China-led alliance, nor is it likely to adopt global best practice due to disparity of interests among its members. Third, Washington and Tokyo are probably right to refuse to join the AIIB and to devote more attention to strengthening the World Bank and the ADB instead. Greater competition among the three is likely to reduce the AIIB's influence. To sum up, it is difficult to detect any reformist intention behind the AIIB, and it is still too weak an organization to facilitate formation of a strong alliance by means of which China can carry out its international agenda.

並列摘要


這篇論文檢視亞投行的成立是否透露出中國試圖在國際發展金融領域中的改革意圖,本文使用描述統計與推論統計的數據來比較各國在世界銀行、亞洲開發銀行與亞投行的權力分佈,以及分析亞投行會員國的組成結構。研究證據顯示,這三個銀行在投票權力的結構上並沒有明顯的差異,而最主要的差異在於,在亞投行當中,中國首次成為最有權力的會員國。截至目前為止,客觀條件並未能看出亞投行欲改革當今國際金融體系的意圖;反之,亞投行較像是中國用來與主要國際金融組織競爭的工具,而在此競爭下,中國可能將面臨數個挑戰。第一,對世界銀行的缺點感到不滿的會員國,將難以在亞投行找到滿意的解答;第二,由於會員國對所追求的利益可能存在著差異,亞投行將難以形成一能夠個由中國主導的聯盟,亦難以在銀行治理中採用國際最佳實踐;第三,美國與日本為了抵制亞投行而拒絕加入亞投行,並增加對世界銀行與亞洲開發銀行資源的投入,其策略可能是正確的,因為三者間更激烈的競爭,將降低亞投行的影響力。總的來看,目前尚難以看出亞投行的改革企圖,銀行目前依然虛弱,尚不足以形成一個堅強的聯盟,來配合中國實現其對外政策之目標。

參考文獻


日經中文網,2015,〈閻學通:中美年底或有嚴重衝突〉,6 月24 日,http://zh.cn.nikkei.com/columnviewpoint/viewpoint/14919-20150624.html,查閱時間:2015/10/3。NIKKEI. 2015. “Yan Xuetong: zhongmei niandi huoyou yanzhong chongtu” [Yan Xuetong: There Might Be Serious Sino-U.S. Conflict at the End of the Year].(Accessed on October 3, 2015).
Aiyar, Swaminathan S. Anklesaria. 2015. "Why US Allies Are Happy to Join China's AIIB." June 30, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/why-us-allies-are-happy-to-joinchinas-aiib/(October 9, 2015).
BBC. 2014. "World Service Global Poll: Negative Views of Russia on the Rise." BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2014/world-service-country-poll(October 9, 2015).
Desai, Raj M., and James Raymond Vreeland. 2015. "How to Stop Worrying and Love the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank." April 6, Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/04/06/how-to-stop-worrying-and-love-theasian-infrastructure-investment-bank/(October 9, 2015).
Heydarian, Richard Javad. 2015. "China's Plan to Obliterate American Supremacy." April 8, The National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-plan-obliterate-americansupremacy-12577(October 9, 2015).

被引用紀錄


周子丹(2017)。日本與中國之東協外交政策與競合關係(2002-2016)〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU201701406

延伸閱讀