基於訊息理論之液化機率與損害評估模式建立與應用

Establishment and Application of the Evaluation Model for the Liquefaction Probability and Associated Damages Based on the Information Theory

黃富國(Fu-Kuo Huang)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 20卷3期 (2008/09) Pp. 301-314

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.200809_20(3).0003

摘要

In this paper, a new SPT-based simplified method, MaxSRP, for assessing the liquefaction potential, probability and associated damages is established. The assessment model is developed using the method of information theory and the results of logistic regression. The performance of the model is better than that of other simplified methods such as Seed method because of the higher success rate of prediction (87%), wider range of application, consistency of evaluation process for damages evaluation, and inclusion of the experiences from the 921 Chi-Chi earthquake. In this model, relationships between the calculated factors of safety (FS) and probability of liquefaction (P(subscript L)) are calibrated using the logistic mapping approach and Bayesian mapping approach. Damage indices, including reduction factor of soil (D(subscript E)), liquefaction potential index (I(subscript L)), are also revised and proposed for the new simplified method. A design chart for soil improvement based on liquefaction probability is also prepared. The newly developed model provides a method to assess liquefaction probability by factors of safety easily, and forms a basis for risk-based evaluation of liquefaction potential and damages quantitatively and consistently. Applying these concepts and results can be beneficial for the engineering community.

關鍵字

土壤液化 ； 邏輯迴歸 ； 機率 ； 訊息理論

並列摘要

In this paper, a new SPT-based simplified method, MaxSRP, for assessing the liquefaction potential, probability and associated damages is established. The assessment model is developed using the method of information theory and the results of logistic regression. The performance of the model is better than that of other simplified methods such as Seed method because of the higher success rate of prediction (87%), wider range of application, consistency of evaluation process for damages evaluation, and inclusion of the experiences from the 921 Chi-Chi earthquake. In this model, relationships between the calculated factors of safety (FS) and probability of liquefaction (P(subscript L)) are calibrated using the logistic mapping approach and Bayesian mapping approach. Damage indices, including reduction factor of soil (D(subscript E)), liquefaction potential index (I(subscript L)), are also revised and proposed for the new simplified method. A design chart for soil improvement based on liquefaction probability is also prepared. The newly developed model provides a method to assess liquefaction probability by factors of safety easily, and forms a basis for risk-based evaluation of liquefaction potential and damages quantitatively and consistently. Applying these concepts and results can be beneficial for the engineering community.

並列關鍵字

soil liquefaction ； logistic regression ； probability ； information theory