Does an Exogenous or an Endogenous Growth Model Fare Better? Evidence from the GDP growth rates of 24 OECD countries

外生與內生成長模型何者解釋力佳？－OECD國家產出成長率的實證分析

李秀雲(Hsiu-Yun Lee)

《經濟研究》 39卷1期 (2003/01) Pp. 1-25

摘要

本文以產出成長率的動態過程來評估外生與內生成長模型的解釋力。不同於假設特殊的外生干擾過程來說明產出的時間序列，本文假設簡單的自我迴歸外生干擾過程，利用模型隱含的動態過程來解釋產出的成長率。透過24個OECD國家的產出成長率資料分別來檢定模型的跨式限制時，其中只有一個國家的概似檢定結果拒絕了內生成長模型的理論限制。然而本文也發現，外生成長模型與內生成長模型對高達75%的OECD國家成長率有看起來完全相同的解釋能力。

關鍵字

外生成長 ； 內生成長 ； 動態過程

並列摘要

This paper evaluates typical exogenous and endogenous growth models in light of their transitional dynamics implications. Rather than selecting a very special stochastic process of technology shock so as to match a specific output process, we assume only a simple AR transitory shock in both growth models. After deriving the growth rate of output under the two models, this paper tests the cross-equation restrictions for 24 OECD countries' output growth rates. We find all but one of the growth series pass the endogenous growth hypothesis. However, even with the transitional dynamics implications in both models, in 75% of the OECD countries the output dynamics are observationally equivalent between the endogenous and the exogenous growth models.

並列關鍵字

exogenous growth ； endogenous growth ； transitional dynamics

參考文獻

Bernard, A. B., Durlaf, S. N.(1995).Convergence in International Output.Journal of Applied Econometrics.10

Blanchard, O. J., Quah, D.(1989).The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances.American Economic Review.79

Campbell, J. Y.(1994).Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model.Journal of Monetary Economics.33

Cooley, T. F., Dwyer, M.(1998).Business Cycle Analysis without Much Theory: A Look at Structural VARs.Journal of Econometrics.83

Costello, D. M.(1993).A Cross-country, Cross-industry Comparison of Productivity Growth.Journal of Political Economy.101