Do Multi-Year Earnings Forecasts Help Identify Over-Investment for Future Business?

分析師多年期盈餘預測能否協助評估企業投資未來價值？

黃承祖(Cheng-Tsu Huang) ； 張竹萱(Chu-Hsuan Chang) ； 林修葳(Hsiou-Wei William Lin)

《財務金融學刊》 25卷4期 (2017/12) Pp. 45-81

https://doi.org/10.6545/JFS.2017.25(4).2

摘要

This study examines the extent to which analyst multi-year earnings forecasts help investors assess values of the firms with substantial fixed and intangible assets. We explore the potential explanations for analysts to provide these forecasts and investigate whether the residual earnings valuation model benefits from incorporating them. Analysts issue more frequently multi-year forecasts for firms with greater investment in property, plant, and equipment, intangible assets, and/or research and development. We also find that given the prevalently adopted near-termed forecasts, analyst multi-year forecasts add significantly to explaining both short- and long-horizoned returns, especially for firms investing heavily for the future.

關鍵字

Analyst-based valuation ； analyst multi-year earnings forecasts ； investment strategy ； residual earnings valuation model ； value-relevance

並列摘要

本文納入分析師多年期盈餘預測於超溢盈餘個股評價模型，檢視其是否增益高額投資於不動產、廠房及設備與無形資產公司價值評估，以探究分析師同時提供多年期盈餘預測的原因。實證發現，分析師偏好提供此類公司多年期盈餘預測；而除文獻上慣常單獨使用的分析師當年度盈餘預測，將多年期預測帶入模型可提升短期與長期投資效益。

並列關鍵字

分析師為基礎評價方法 ； 分析師多年期盈餘預測 ； 投資策略 ； 超溢盈餘個股評價模型 ； 價值攸關

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