氣象與老年人循環系統疾病死亡－台北、台中、高雄的比較

Circulatory Diseases Mortality and Meteorological Factors in the Elderly. In Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung Areas

劉怡焜(Yi-Kuen Liu) ； 林瑞雄(Ruey S.Lin) ； 李源德(Yuan-The Lee) ； 謝信良(Shinn-Liang Shieh) ； 陳永仁(Yeong-Ren Chen) ； 宋鴻樟(Fung-Chang Sung)

《台灣公共衛生雜誌》 21卷3期 (2002/06) Pp. 189-196

https://doi.org/10.6288/TJPH2002-21-03-05

摘要

目標：探討氣象因子和台北、台中、高雄三個地區循環系統疾病死亡的季節趨勢與相關性。方法：以衛生署死亡統計資料中設籍於台北地區（台北市、台北縣）、台中地區（台中縣、台中市）、高雄地區（高雄縣、高雄市）65歲以上，自1989年至1998年間死於循環系統疾病(ICD 390-459)者為對象，並對應氣象局台北、台中、高雄氣象測站之氣溫、氣壓、濕度等氣象資料，分析循環系統疾病日死亡率最低的氣溫，以卜瓦松迴歸(Poissin Regression)分析每日平均氣溫、日氣壓變化及濕度對循環系統疾病死亡的影響，及相對最適溫度之危險比。結果：這三個地區在冬天的循環系統疾病死亡率比夏天高出27.7%~33.4%。台北地區的最適溫度為26°C，台中、高雄則為27°C，當溫度降低到11°C以下時，台北地區循環系統疾病死亡的危險比達1.62(95% confidence interval (CI)1.45-1.80)；台中則為1.51(95%CI 1.06-2.14) ；高雄地區溫度降至15°C以下時，循環系統疾病死亡危險比為1.50(95% CI 1.28-1.77)。日平均相對濕度引起的死亡效應小，但統計相關顯著；氣壓的效應也較小，但在台北地區卻為顯著。結論：氣溫是主要影響循環系統疾病死亡的氣象因子，三個地區季節性變化大致相似，但是，增加50%循環系統死亡危險的最低溫度，高雄的比在台北的高，顯示氣溫下降時保暖的重要性。

關鍵字

循環系統疾病死亡 ； 季節性 ； 氣溫 ； 氣壓

並列摘要

Objectives: This study investigated circulatory deaths associated with weather conditions in Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung areas. Methods: Using vital and meteorological statistics in 1989 to 1998, deaths from circulatory diseases (ICD 390-459) in the elderly in Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung areas were analyzed for seasonal variations of the mortality the optimum temperature with the least deaths. Risk ratios were measured against the optimum temperature for Taipei. Taichung and Kaohsiung areas. The effect of barometric pressure change and relative humidity was also evaluated. Results: Compared with summer, the excess risks of circulatory deaths in winter ranged between 27.7% and 3J.4% in the three areas. Compared with the optimum temperature, 26°C, in Taipei area, the risk ratio of death from the diseases was 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45-1.80) when the temperature decreased to ＜11 °C. In both Taichung and Kaohsiung areas, the optimum temperature was 27°C. When the temperature was ＜11°C, the risk ratio was l.51 (95% CI 1.06-2.14) in Taichung; when the temperature was ＜15°C the risk ratio was 1.50 (95% CI 1.28-1. 77) in Kaohsiung. The effect of daily relative humidity was weak but statistically significant in all three areas. The effect of barometric pressure change was also weak and significant only in Taipei area. Conclusions: Temperature is the major meteorological factor associated with the circulatory death for the elderly. The seasonal mortality patterns were generally consistent among the three study areas. However, the lowest average temperature leading to a 50% excess risk of the death is higher in Kaohsiung than in Taipei, reflecting that it is important for the elderly to keep the body warm when the temperature declines.

並列關鍵字

circulatory disease mortality ； season ； temperature ； barometric pressure

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