極端氣溫對台灣都會區65歲以上族群心肺疾病死亡之風險趨勢分析

A Chronological Study of Mortality Risks Associated with Extreme Temperature for Elderly Populations in Metropolitan Areas of Taiwan

林于凱(Yu-Kai Lin) ； 吳祐誠(Yu-Chung Wu) ； 黃鈴雅(Ling-Ya Huang) ； 林嘉明(Chia-Ming Lin) ； 吳聰能(Trong-Neng Wu) ； 周昌弘(Chang-Hung Chou) ； 宋鴻樟(Fung-Chang Sung) ； 王玉純(Yu-Chun Wang)

《台灣公共衛生雜誌》 30卷3期 (2011/06) Pp. 277-289

https://doi.org/10.6288/TJPH2011-30-03-08

摘要

Objectives: To evaluate the mortality risks from all causes as well as cardiorespiratory diseases associated with extreme temperatures among the elderly in the Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung areas of Taiwan from 1994-2008. Methods: We used the distributed lag model to analyze the 7-day cumulative mortality risks associated with 1℃ daily average temperature increases above 30℃ and the 21-day cumulative mortality risks associated with 1℃ daily average temperature decreases below 18℃ in the study areas. Relative risks associated with extreme temperature (＞95% and ＜5%) for more than 3 consecutive days were also evaluated. Results: Taipei had a significant 5% excess mortality from all causes as well as cardiovascular diseases as daily average temperature above 30℃ with each 1℃ rise. Low temperature resulted in higher risks in Kaohsiung where the relative risk was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10) for mortality from all causes and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03-1.04) for mortality from cardiovascular diseases as the daily average temperature below 18℃ decreased by each 1℃. We observed adaption for high temperature but not cold temperature. No significant associations were observed between temperature changes of 1℃ and mortality from respiratory diseases. Conclusions: Cumulative mortality risks from all causes and cardiovascular diseases were significantly associated with high and low temperatures in metropolitan areas of Taiwan. The impact of each 1℃ temperature change appeared to be greater for people in the Taipei area than for those in other areas.

關鍵字

心血管 ； 呼吸道 ； 死亡 ； 溫度

並列摘要

Objectives: To evaluate the mortality risks from all causes as well as cardiorespiratory diseases associated with extreme temperatures among the elderly in the Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung areas of Taiwan from 1994-2008. Methods: We used the distributed lag model to analyze the 7-day cumulative mortality risks associated with 1℃ daily average temperature increases above 30℃ and the 21-day cumulative mortality risks associated with 1℃ daily average temperature decreases below 18℃ in the study areas. Relative risks associated with extreme temperature (＞95% and ＜5%) for more than 3 consecutive days were also evaluated. Results: Taipei had a significant 5% excess mortality from all causes as well as cardiovascular diseases as daily average temperature above 30℃ with each 1℃ rise. Low temperature resulted in higher risks in Kaohsiung where the relative risk was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05-1.10) for mortality from all causes and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.03-1.04) for mortality from cardiovascular diseases as the daily average temperature below 18℃ decreased by each 1℃. We observed adaption for high temperature but not cold temperature. No significant associations were observed between temperature changes of 1℃ and mortality from respiratory diseases. Conclusions: Cumulative mortality risks from all causes and cardiovascular diseases were significantly associated with high and low temperatures in metropolitan areas of Taiwan. The impact of each 1℃ temperature change appeared to be greater for people in the Taipei area than for those in other areas.

並列關鍵字

cardiovascular ； respiratory ； mortality ； temperature

參考文獻

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