Evaluating the Uncertainty of the Population Growth Parameter Estimates of Larval Anchovy in the Southwestern Waters of Taiwan Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Sheng-Ping Wang ； Ming-An Lee ； Wen-Yu Chen

《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》 20卷6期 (2012/12) Pp. 662-669

https://doi.org/10.6119/JMST-012-0504-1

並列摘要

To estimate the population growth parameter (maximum sustainable yield, carrying capacity, catchability, the ratio of initial biomass to carrying capacity and model shape parameter) of larval anchovy in the southwestern waters of Taiwan, a non-equilibrium production model was used to fit to historical catch data and standardized CPUE series. The results of standardized CPUE indicated that the sea surface temperature was the most effective variable for explaining the CPUE variation of larval anchovy abundance. This study also evaluated impact of the uncertainty associated with the catch and CPUE data on the model estimations using Monte Carlo simulations. Although the impacts of the uncertain data on the accuracy of model estimations were minor, the precision of estimations would be deteriorated if the level of errors in the data source, particularly for CPUE data, was increased. In addition, the assumption of Schafer's logistic production model would be more appropriate than Fox's model which was applied to larval anchovy in the southwestern waters of Taiwan in previous study.

並列關鍵字

larval anchovy ； population growth parameter ； Monte Carlo simulation ； uncertainty ； southwestern waters of Taiwan

參考文獻

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