從邏輯斯諦回歸(Logistic Regression)論運動參與之預測

The Prediction of Sport Participation by Using the Logistic Regression

施致平(Chih-Pin Shih)

《體育學報》 27期 (1999/09) Pp. 21-30

https://doi.org/10.6222/pej.0027.199909.2203

摘要

預測是各領域追求的指標，嚴格地說是有效評估的先前步驟，如醫師對病患的診斷一直深廣患者所採信，其主要的原因不外乎是依據醫學檢驗報告中的實際數值所下的結論，倘若，體育運動的領域中能建立如醫學般的預測指標，對各項體育休閒活動的從業者或研究者將是一大建樹。基於此因，發展或研擬一套有系統的預測法則是迫切之研究課題，但綜觀現今體育運動的研究現況，僅以單純統計結果之p值及自變項與依變項間的顯著差異做為解釋之依歸，已無法進一步推估或預測兩變項間更深層之互動關係，因而更進一步從統計迴歸的觀點而言，邏輯斯諦迴歸(Logistic Regression)彌補了現況研究之不足。
邏輯斯諦迴歸是一種適用於預測一個二分的或次序變項間的統計迴歸模式，其迴歸模式中對數奇數比[logit(p)]與賭比(Odds Ratio)明確顯示研究結果的實際數值，這雖僅僅是數字的羅列，卻提供研究者預測的指標，這不但提供政府部門擬訂政策的方針，亦可提供國內休閒運動相關產業端出切合實際且適合可口的佳餚，以供社會大眾享宴，避免經費與資源的浪費，以期永續經營休閒運動產業。

關鍵字

運動參于 ； 預測 ； 邏輯斯諦回歸 ； 勝數比

並列摘要

Prediction has been an important indication in every research field. Strictly speaking, it is a pre-step for an effective assessment. For example, patients are always convinced of the doctors' diagnosis because of the accuracy of medical reports. Hence, if the prediction in the field of sports can be as good as in the medical sciences, it will help establish a concrete framework for researchers as well as recreational industries. Therefore, developing a systematic prediction method in Sports is a crucial issue. Of the studies concerning sports at present, however, pvalue, the result of statistics, is the only way most research adopt to describe whether or not there is a significant difference between the dependent and independent variables. In fact, p-value fails to describe the deeper relationship between those two variables; nor can it be used for prediction. Thus, from the statistical regression perspective, the Logistic Regression is an appropriate prediction method to make up for the shortage of current researches.
The Logistic Regression which contains the logit(p) and odds ratio is able to show the accurate results. Although it is simply the list of numbers, it provides researchers with the prediction indication. Meanwhile, it not only offers the government the guiding policies for planning but also supports related sport and recreational industries for supplying practical and appropriate delicacies in terms of providing people with a good menu, avoiding the consuming of budgets and resources, and continuing to run sport and recreational industries.

並列關鍵字

Sport Participation ； Prediction ； Logistic Regression ； Odds Ratio