Analyzing the Spatial-temporal Structure of Cholera Diffusion in the Late 19(superscript th) Century of Japan

十九世紀末日本霍亂擴散的時空解析

郭俊麟(Chun-Lin Kuo) ； 福井弘道(Hiromichi Fukui)

《中國地理學會會刊》 38期 (2007/03) Pp. 67-84

https://doi.org/10.29972/BGSC.200703.0004

摘要

本研究嘗試建立一套可以涵蓋不同資料類型與地理尺度的分析架構來解析十九世紀末日本霍亂大流行在時空變遷上的動態特徵。首先利用GIS技術將1890年《全國霍亂流行紀事》內的疫情紀錄轉化為「統計數據」與「文字記載」兩類型的疾病地理資訊庫。前者包含了霍亂流行期間每日罹患人數的統計；後者詳細紀錄了疾病擴散的路徑與地理特徵。
研究方法上整合了兩種GIS空間統計方法，首先在全國的研究尺度上採用「時間性風險指標」來偵測日本全國各縣罹患率的週期變化，在區域性研究尺度上則配合「地理加權迴歸」的應用深入探討九州地區霍亂擴散模式的機制。
研究結果歸納出日本全國的六種霍亂流行模式，其特徵與地理分布特色提供了我們了解疾病在各縣之間擴散的空間線索。九州區域的擴散迴歸分析則說明了位於九州西北側的長崎到福岡一帶為霍亂疫情擴散至全國其他區域的地理走廊。本研究成果不但呈現疾病空間分佈的特徵，同時也反映了當時日本區域結構的地理特色。此個案研究也展示了如何更有彈性的使用GIS計量分析方法在歷史疾病研究的議題上，並賦予更多的可能性。

關鍵字

霍亂 ； 擴散 ； 地理資訊系統GIS ； 時間性風險指標 ； 地理加權迴歸GWR

並列摘要

The authors take an integrated approach to exploring the spatial-temporal structure of cholera epidemics in modern Japan by using various investigative frameworks in which two GIS-based statistical methodologies assist in analyzing cholera diffusion dynamics. Numerical evidence and textual accounts abstracted from the country's 1890 National Cholera Report were aggregated into different geo-databases. The numerical data were used with temporal risk indices to detect changes in cholera morbidity across Japanese prefectures. Text accounts were used to model diffusion among Kyusyu counties with a geographically weighted regression (GWR). Six types of integrated characteristics of epidemic waves were isolated; these provided clues to recognizing temporal risk patterns of the disease among prefectures. The Kyusyu regional diffusion model explains why the northwestern part of Kyusyu region can be considered a geographical corridor to cities in other regions. The study results add value to the concept of representing modern Japan's geographic structure. Furthermore, the case study shows how GIS-based quantitative techniques may be used in a more flexible manner than previously possible in disease studies.

並列關鍵字

Cholera, diffusion ； geographic information system GIS, temporal risk indices, geographically weighted regression GWR

參考文獻

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