小泉執政時期眾參兩院選舉之定群追蹤分析：固定與隨機效果並用法之應用

A Panel Study for Japanese Bicameral System under Koizumi's Governance: An Application of Hybrid Method of Fixed and Random Effect Models

郭銘峰(Ming-Feng Kuo) ； 王鼎銘(Ding-Ming Wang)

《選舉研究》 21卷1期 (2014/05) Pp. 127-167

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2014.21.01.127-167

摘要

當代民主國家的立法機構組成與選舉制度設計，為推行民主政治的兩大核心要素，它們不僅攸關社會民意代表性、立法政策制定，更牽動各股政治勢力的消長。饒富旨趣的是，各民主國家基於不同歷史、政治、與社會脈絡的考量，會有不同形式的設計組合，這些迥異的制度結構，也直接牽動各國民主政治的成效。本文以日本國會選舉為例，觀察該國在兩院制及其選制下的政治效應，特別是小泉執政時期2003年、2004年眾參院選舉的投票動態變化。透由日本選舉研究（JES）定群追蹤資料的輔助，本文檢視兩院制衡設計下相關因素（如施政課責）對投票決策的影響；此外，小泉執政時期其領導魅力備受矚目，本文也探討其對選票支持的影響。固定與隨機效果並用法的分析結果顯示：日本選民在眾參兩院確實產生相當程度的選票流動現象，並賦予在野黨派若干生存與制衡課責空間，符合制度設計預期；惟小泉獨特的領導魅力，也在其執政時期內對支持者轉投其他在野黨派產生若干壓抑效果，此凸顯小泉領導魅力的實質作用。此外，分析結果亦顯示在野黨派政黨認同的影響不僅因選民個體間的差異而異，也因個體政黨認同意識本身跨時序的變化而不同，這也反映出日本政黨政治的發展在這兩屆選舉中，在野勢力已漸成氣候。

關鍵字

日本國會選舉 ； 兩院制 ； 選舉穩定與變遷 ； 定群追蹤資料 ； 固定與隨機效果並用法

並列摘要

The framework of legislative institution and electoral systems have played a significant role in modern democracies. Every Countries based on the differents of historical, political, and social backgrounds, that adopted different legislative and electoral systems that usually result in particular political consequences. For examples, the representation of public opinions, the policy-making process, the competition between different political camps, and most importantly the formation of party systems. This study, by applying Japan as an example, tries to analyze the political and electoral influences made by its legislative framework and electoral system; especially the 2003 and 2004 Japanese Diet Elections under Junichiro Koizumi's governance. The importance of Japanese Diet relies not simply on the bicameral system regulated by its post-war Constitution, but also the various electoral systems for House of Councilors and House of Representatives. Because of the unique institutional establishment, the check and balance between two Houses has increased and become an importance issue in Japanese politics. With the assistance of individual panel data from Japanese Election Study (JES), and take advantage of hybrid method of fixed and random effect model, we observe this important institutional conflict empirically and effectively during the period of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Although the results reveal the substantial vote-flows between the ruling and the opposition parties in the House of Representatives and Councilors elections, which support the institution effect of check and balance, we also find that Koisumi charisma makes a considerable influence to offset the vote-flows from the ruling party to the opposition. In addition, we also find the factor of party identification influence the voters' decisions not only exist between subjects, but also within subjects over time; especially support toward the main opposition party DPJ. Most importantly, the result also reveals that the opposite party may become full-fledged during these elections.

並列關鍵字

Japanese Diet Elections ； bicameral system ； electoral stability and change ； panel data ； hybrid method of fixed and random effect models

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