Is there a Reverse Correlation in Growth of Japanese and Chinese Exports to Africa? Evidence from South Africa, Kenya and Uganda, 2007-2017

Bhaso Ndzendze

《Tamkang Journal of International Affairs》 23卷2期 (2019/10) Pp. 39-80

https://doi.org/10.6185/TJIA.V.201910_23(2).0002

摘要

The following paper tested a hypothesis postulating that increases in People's Republic of China exports of the given products to African countries, in this case South Africa, Kenya and Uganda, in any given year(s) between 2007 and 2017 would always correlate with decreases in Japanese exports of the specified six products to the three countries studied. Each country's product set was chosen on the basis of the two products being primarily imported from Japan in the initial year of study, and subsequently seeing Chinese growth between then and 2017. The findings of the paper point to uneven results among the countries, with more incidences of an inverse correlation towards China's gain in South Africa (5/22) and Kenya (6/22), and the reverse in the case of Uganda (7/22). However, there were more incidences of correlated movement (mutual growth and mutual declines) across all countries than inverse movements, bringing the totals to a threshold-passing 35/66 (p＞33) for the former and 24 for the latter. The study indicates a general lack of a zero-sum game overall as the two Asian states' exports into the three African countries' markets on the continent have no direct impact on one another.

關鍵字

TICAD ； FOCAC ； Japan-Africa trade ； China-Africa trade ； new scramble for Africa ； Belt and Road Initiative ； Asia-Africa Growth Corridor

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