分析層級程序法(AHP)在選舉整合策略擬定之應用

The Integrated Study of Election Strategy: Applications of AHP Technique

李錦河(Chin-Ho Lee) ； 丁仁方(Jen-Fang Ting) ； 陳盈太(Yin-Tai Chen) ； 溫敏杰(Miin-Jye Wen)

《調查研究-方法與應用》 18期 (2005/10) Pp. 113-158

https://doi.org/10.7014/TCYCFFYYY.200510.0113

摘要

過去選舉研究多著重透過各種模型建立，達到預測選舉結果的目標。對於選舉策略方面，多數研究都偏向對候選人或是選民分別進行分析，抑或是以前後順序的階層方式來進行研究，對於整合髏選人與選民因素的研究，則付之闕如，且對於選舉策略擬定的資源分配選擇，那缺乏相關之研究。本研究乃透過分析層級程序法(analytic hierarchy process, AHP)來研擬選戰決策，透過決定資源分配的方向，重新審視選戰過程中，選舉資源的分配是否妥適，提供適時與迅速的選戰反應機制，並將有限選舉資源進行重新分配，以因應選情詭譎多變的特性，提供未來選舉決策者與相關研究者另一種思考與決策觀點。由於台灣自1996年總統直接選舉以來，總統選舉的次數尚且不多，相關研究也尚在起步階段，本研究嘗試以台商市選區爲例，針對2004年台灣總統選舉，透過系統分析的方法來決定選戰策略，以因應不斷推陳出新的選舉行銷手法，以期降低選舉決策者的決策延遲與反應過慢的缺點。
AHP除了對各項選戰資源配置提供明確權重外，尚可透過敏感度分析，進一步瞭解決策目標與資源配置是否具有一致性，並得知對選戰敏感度高的目標，其優先資源選擇策略，提供選戰決策者適時調整資源配置，減少不必要資源投入與浪費，將選戰策略與當選目標高度連結。本研究嘗試從行銷決策者角度切入，以建立新的選舉分析方法，減少直覺決策的錯誤，以系統化決策來取代，透過邏輯推演，建立過去選舉研究所無的新觀點。

關鍵字

AHP analytic hierarchy process ； 選舉策略擬定 ； 選戰決策 ； 選舉資源分配

並列摘要

Most of election studies were focus on building the different models to predict the election results in the past literature. In the election strategy field, most literatures emphasized the analysis of the attributes of candidates and voters, or use the order hierarchy technique to realize the relationship of them. However, very few studies integrated candidates and voters' factors and considered resource allocation strategy. In this paper used the AHP technique to select resource allocation strategy, to evaluate the process of election, to check weather the allocation of resource is rational or not, and to expect the AHP technique can provide feedback to build the timely and immediate election response system. In addition to re-allocating the limited election resource, AHP technique can modify decision process to fit the modern diversify election, apply it to future election, and use it to offer decision-maker rethinking viewpoints. In Taiwan, resulting from direct presidential election began in 1996, the experiences of presidential election only through three times so far. Therefore, the study of presidential election is just in the starting step in Taiwan. This paper tries to rely on the case of presidential election basing on Tainan city's data in 2004. We employ AHP technique to analysis election strategy, to reduce the decision lag and responding slowly.
The AHP technique is not only offer the weight of election resource allocation, but also use sensitivity analysis to understand weather the decision goal and resource allocation are consistent or not. In addition to identifying priority resources to the election campaign goal and strategy, AHP technique offers election campaign decision-makers to adjust resource distribution in right time, reduce resource input unnecessary and waste, and link election between goal and strategy. This research cuts the wrong of intuition decision, sets up new election model by replacing with systematized decision, and makes the new logic viewpoints that election research not have in the past.

並列關鍵字

AHP ； Election Strategy Planning ； Election Decision-Making ； Election Resource Allocation

參考文獻

李錦河(1999)。「選民需求指標」選舉預測模式應用於「多人參選當選多席次」之選舉研究：以1998年台南市安南區市議員選舉為例。選舉研究。6(1)，31-66。

Al-Harbi, K. M. A-S.(2001).Application of the AHP in Project Management.International Journal of Project Management.19(1),19-27.

Andijani, A. A.(1998).A Multi-criterion Approach for Kanban Allocations.Omega.26(4),483-493.

Babic, Z.,Plazibat, N.(1998).Ranking of Enterprises Based on Multicriterial Analysis.International Journal of Production Economics.56-57,29-35.

Badri, M. A.(2001).A Combined AHP-GP Model for Quality Control Systems.International Journal of Production Economics.72,27-40.