第四季超級籃球聯賽球隊戰績表現潛力與排名之分析研究

An Analysis of Potential Performances and Ranking of the Fourth Super Basketball League

林慧婷(Hui-Ting Lin)

《大專體育學刊》 9卷3期 (2007/09) Pp. 47-55

https://doi.org/10.5297/ser.200709_9(3).0004

摘要

本研究之目的在以經濟學上的生產理論，來探討第四季超級籃球聯賽各球隊的生產函數，利用Farrell(1957)提出的邊界生產函數與Richmond(1974)的估計方法，進行各球隊潛力與生產效率的衡量，並與實際的戰績排名做一比較。研究結果指出：各球隊生產函數模型之解釋力均達顯著，顯示模型中各投入變數的配置適當，其中以兩分球與三分球投籃命中率為各球隊之產出影響最主要的正向來源。籃板與助攻對部分球隊而言，也是重要的正向因素。失誤與犯規對產出則有相當大的負面效果，影響程度有時甚至高於三分球命中率。其次，在生產效率上，各球隊的效率值均很高，符合運動競賽高度競爭的特性，在各球隊差異不大的情形下，真正影響球隊表現的關鍵，即為球隊的邊界產出（潛力）。球隊的邊界產出，又決定於球員的組成與球隊教練的執教風格，尋求合適的球員與教練，成為球隊的重要課題。球隊可以參考生產函數所帶來的訊息，針對能有效提昇產出的投入要素，經由球隊的訓練內容、招攬球員或改變球隊的球風，來達成提昇產出的目的。最後，各球隊估計產出之排名高低與實際戰績排名之間達顯著相關，兩者具有相當的一致性，顯示此估計方法具有一定的可信度。

關鍵字

邊界生産函數 ； 生産效率

並列摘要

This study employed the concept of the production frontier to measure teams' potential and production efficiency of the 4(superscript th) Super Basketball League (SBL), and compared it with the actual standings. By estimating the production frontier models of the SBL teams, we found that 2-point and 3-point shooting percentages offered the major effect on a team's performance and to some teams, rebounds and assists were also valuable. Turnovers and fouls had a great negative effect and sometimes were more important than the 3-point shooting percentages. In regard to production efficiency, all teams were efficient at high values. It conformed to the characteristic of high competitiveness of sports contests. Given the high estimates of efficiency, the frontier outputs are the keys to affect team performance. This means that how to find proper players and coaches become the most important challenge for the SBL teams to deal with. Finally, the rank of estimated outputs is quite consistent with the actual standing. This outcome also confirms the reliability of the estimating technique.

並列關鍵字

production frontier ； production efficiency

參考文獻

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