Endogenous Fluctuations of the Terms of Trade under Linked Exchange Rates: Evidence from Hong Kong

聯繫匯率制度下貿易條件的內生波動：香港的實證

陳昭南(Chau-Nan Chen) ； 陳思寬(Shi-Kuan Chen)

《台灣管理學刊》 1卷1期 (2001/08) Pp. 77-87

https://doi.org/10.6295/TAMJ.2001.0101.05

摘要

本計劃建立一個聯繫匯率（固定匯率）制度之小型開放經濟模型，藉以探討其貿易條件呈現內生性波動之可能。在借助“不確定性”文獻中之方法求得非確定動態均衡的存在條件之後，利用香港的貿易條件資料來驗證內生性波動之存在。

關鍵字

不確定性 ； 貿易條件 ； 內生波動

並列摘要

This paper aims to show the possibility of endogenous fluctuations of the terms of trade in a simple intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy under linked (fixed) exchange rates. We derive the condition under which stochastic self-fulfilling expectations (sunspots) may generate endogenous fluctuations in the terms of trade by following the line of research in the ”indeterminacy” literature. We then look for evidence of this condition in the Hong Kong terms-of-trade data over the period of January 1984 to December 1998.

並列關鍵字

Indeterminacy ； Terms of trade ； Endogenous fluctuations