The author asserts that, first, in order to get a complete picture, not only of the easily quantifiable impacts but also of the intangible implications and the opportunity costs of non-enlargement must be taken into account. Second, the promise of eventual accession helps to secure social acceptance of painful reforms and to safeguard them from the influence of vested interests by increasing the costs of deviating from the reform path. In addition, by sharing the expenses of fifth eastward enlargement, the total cost is moderate. Third, the cost-benefit calculation is positive for both sides despite the fact that some areas and some industries of the new member states are going to suffer severely. Moreover, there will be obstacles and opportunities in the face of enlargement in both sides. It is worth noting that the development of new members in the EU is crucial. If new members could manage well inside the EU, they would reach the same level of western standard in decades; on the contrary, if this goal cannot be achieved, the split inside the EU is also foreseeable.
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