候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行為

Candidate Image, Feeling Thermometer, and Presidential Voting Behavior

黃秀端(Shiow-Duan Hawang)

《臺灣民主季刊》 2卷4期 (2005/12) Pp. 1-30

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200512.0001

摘要

總統選舉是國家領導人的選舉，候選人在選戰過程中受到媒體之矚目是其他選舉之候選人無法相提並論的，再加上民國93年的總統選舉競爭相當激烈，因此本文認為候選人形象在總統選舉中應扮演相當關鍵的角色。候選人形象指的是候選人在選民心目中的圖像，包括：候選人魄力、清廉度、誠實有信用、瞭解民眾需要、以及親和力。本文首先分析兩位候選人在選民心目中的形象，接著分析候選人形象與情感溫度計之間的關係，亦即候選人形象是否為決定對候選人整體評估的主要因素。政治學者常常用對政治人物感覺分數，也就是對政治人物的情感溫度計，來測量對候選人的整體評價。本文發現候選人形象確實與情感溫度計有密切關係，不過選民對陳水扁之形象對陳水扁情感溫度計的影響大於連戰形象對連戰感情溫度計之影響。政黨喜好程度對於情感溫度計也有相當程度之影響，特別是對連戰情感溫度計之影響。不過，不管是候選人形象或政黨喜好程度對兩位候選人情感溫度計的解釋力都不如對候選人未來四年主導國家發展放心的程度。對陳水扁放心程度越高者，對他的情感分數越高，同樣的，對連戰主政放心程度高對他的情感溫度計也較高。根據美國學者之研究，若選民對候選人情感溫度計能分出高下的話，幾乎可以說決定了選民之投票抉擇，然而在台灣情感溫度計雖然對選民之投票行為有顯著影響，其影響力不如美國，也不如政黨喜好程度變數。政黨喜好程度一方面影響選民對候選人之情感溫度計，另一方面又對選民投票抉擇有獨立之影響。

關鍵字

候選人形象 ； 情感溫度計 ； 選人的整體評價 ； 政黨喜好程度

並列摘要

Presidential election is the selection of the national leader. The 2004 presidential election had drawn a lot of attention from mass media. The extensive coverage by the mass media turned the candidates into the most prominent factor in the 2004 presidential election campaign, thus, the voters felt obligated to take the candidates' qualifications and personalities into consideration in their voting decisions. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people's needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of ”feeling thermometers”. This study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining the overall evaluation of the candidate. The impact of candidate image on voter's ”feeling thermometer” towards Chen Shui-bian was greater than that of Lien Chan. The study also found that party preferences have a profound impact on the voter's ”feeling thermometer,” this was especially true in the case of Lien Chan. None the less, the most important factor in determining a candidate's ”feeling thermometer” is the prospective evaluation of the candidate's national performance, the next is party preference and then candidate image. For those who think highly of Chen Shui-bian's prospective national performance also have a high ”feeling thermometer” towards him, likewise, those who think highly of Chairman Lien Chan's prospective national performance also have a high ”feeling thermometer” towards him. According to research conducted in the United States, if the voter's ”feeling thermometer” towards the candidates are different, it can ultimately determine the voters' decision. The study further evaluates if the ”feeling thermometers” influence people's voting choices. In Taiwan, although the ”feeling thermometer” has an effect on people's voting behavior, the influence is far weaker when compared to America. Therefore, the voter's ”feeling thermometer” is not the most important factor. Party preference, candidate image and incumbent evaluation are all important factors in determining voters' decisions.

並列關鍵字

candidate image ； feeling thermometer ； candidate evaluation ； party preference

參考文獻

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