典型的回顧型投票－2005年三合一選舉結果的解析

Retrospective Voting in Taiwan's Election in 2005

劉義周(I-Chou Liu)

《臺灣民主季刊》 2卷4期 (2005/12) Pp. 147-153

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200512.0147

摘要

2005年台灣地方三合一選舉是中間選民的回顧型投票的結果。由於過去幾年來台灣經濟發展的遲滯、兩岸關係的低迷、選前陸續爆發的各種貪瀆案件等，使民眾對民進黨中央施政滿意度長期不振。這樣的民意，使過去經常支持民進黨的民眾在地方選舉中選擇了國民黨為主的在野黨候選人。這種「換人做做看」的民意，凸顯了這次選舉的「回顧型投票」特徵。這個選舉也有可能對民眾的政黨認同的長期分佈造成影響。部分淡綠的台灣選民，有可能因此而逐漸褪色，減低了他們對民進黨的認同。

關鍵字

台灣選舉 ； 台灣政黨 ； 回顧型投票

並列摘要

The outcome of Taiwan's ”three-in-one” local elections is the result of independent voter's ”retrospective voting.” Taiwan's sluggish economy; turbid cross-strait relations in recent years; and scandals exposed during the election are factors contributing to public dissatisfaction with the ruling DPP government. This dissatisfaction resulted in a shift of support against the DPP. Those who voted for DPP candidates in past elections decided to punish the DPP for DPP's poor performance in recent years. The long term effect is that it may gradually change the distribution of party support among the Taiwanese public.

並列關鍵字

Taiwanese election ； Taiwanese political party ； retrospective election