北高市長選舉結果與民意調查間的弔詭

The Paradox between Public Opinion Polls and the Election Results of the Taipei City and Kaohsiung City Mayoral Elections

吳秀光(Samuel S.G. Wu)

《臺灣民主季刊》 3卷4期 (2006/12) Pp. 165-172

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200612.0165

摘要

針對2002年與2006年兩次北高市長選舉中，筆者觀察在藍綠兩陣營候選人的得票率與選前民調的支持率間，呈現出令人玩味的差距。首先，2002年台北市長選舉投票日前，國民黨候選人馬英九在選前的民調支持度高達七成，最後共拿下873,201票，得票率只有64.11%；民進黨候選人李應元的民調支持率則一直在20%上下，但最後卻得到488,811票，得票率為35.89%。而在本次選舉中，民進黨候選人謝長廷在選前，近40次各不同機構所做的民調中，其支持率很少超過25%，但實際上開出的選票卻有525,869票，得票率40.89%，雖然輸給國民黨候選人郝龍斌十六萬餘票，但卻遠比之前民調結果高了許多。從這兩次選舉中可以發現，民意調查的結果與實際開票情況有極大的落差，因此許多人便會質疑，是否民意調查失靈，它其實並不科學，也不客觀，以致於民意調查的預測與實際狀況產生如此大的懸殊？

關鍵字

民意調查 ； 政策行銷 ； 抽樣誤差 ； 訪談誤差

並列摘要

In both the 2002 and 2006 Taipei City and Kaohsiung City Mayoral Elections, we found a paradox between the public opinion polls and the actual ballots casted for the two camps' candidates: the ”green” camp led by the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and the ”blue” camp led by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The day before the 2002 Taipei City Mayoral Election, the major public opinion polls showed that up to 70% of the respondents supported the KMT’s candidate Ma Yinjeou, however in the end, Ma received 873,201 votes, which amounts to only 64.11% of total votes. While the same public opinion polls showed that the DPP's candidate Lee Ying-yuan had only around 20% of the respondents' support, however in the end, Lee received 488,811 votes, or 35.89% of the total 1,374,862 votes casted in the 2002 election. In the 2006 Taipei City Mayoral Election, in spite of 40% different public opinion polls that placed the popularity rating for DPP's candidate Frank Hsieh barely above 25%, when the votes were counted, he received 525,869 votes, or 40.89% of the 1,295,790 votes. Although it was still around 160,000 votes behind KMT candidate's Hao Long-bin, the DPP's candidate was far more successful than forecasted by the public opinion polls. From these two elections, we conclude that there is a major discrepancy between the public opinion polls and the actual election results, calling many to question if public opinion polls have lost their efficacy; and that they are not scientific or objective, as there is no other explanation for such major errors.

並列關鍵字

public opinion poll ； policy marketing ； sampling error ； interview error