農業氣象資訊在專家決策系統之應用與發展方向

專家系統具有整合、累積領域專家之知識與經驗的功能，將會逐漸被使用於與農業生產活動中各類需要進行判斷與抉擇的工作。農業氣象子系統是農業專家決策系統中重要的一環，若專家決策系統能依據各地區氣候之特性、遭受氣象災害損失的風險評估、以及相關防護和改良措施之經濟效益評估，並配合土壤特性、現有栽培面積和市場行情預測方面的資訊，提供具潛力的作物名單供農會和農友選擇，又能提供適當的栽培管理措施指導、運銷體系規劃等之建議，不僅可以減少市場供需不平衡的發生機會，達到穩定農產品價格的目的；對於農友開發新產品，滿足國人對於產品多樣化的要求也會有所助益。為完成上述之構想，目前已完成農業氣象資料庫及相關查詢介面之建置工作，可提供有關地區氣候特性、農業氣象災害發生頻率及簡易的災害風險和經濟效益評估等資訊；也已開發作物和土壤方面的資料庫及相關查詢介面，可提供作為推薦適栽作物的基礎。期盼能有更多的同好參與，增加資料庫內的基礎資料和相關專家知識，並繼續擴增可用資料庫的種類，共同為朝向建置一個具整合型功能的農業專家決策系統努力。

關鍵字

專家系統；資料庫；知識經濟；農業生產；氣象災害

並列摘要

Expert systems, being capable of integrating and accumulating the knowledge and experiences of domain experts, will gradually be applied in many agricultural activities requiring decision making. Agrometeorological subsystem is an important portion of an agricultural decision expert system. Based on information regarding climatic characteristics, risks of agrometeorological disasters, and economical feasibility evaluations of mitigation techniques, in conjunction with other information such as soil characteristics, plantation acreages, market prediction, etc., an agricultural decision expert system may supply a recommendation list to farmers and their associations for selecting potentially profitable crops to produce new product. It is expected that, with proper management guidance and marketing assistance from governmental authorities, agricultural commodity's price may be stabilized by reducing the chances of having imbalanced production and marketing. The demand of general public to have a variety of new product can also be satisfied. With the above mentioned goals in mind, an agrometeorological subsystem and accompanying crop and soil subsystem have been developed. More cooperated colleagues are welcomed to join the project to develop an integrated agricultural expert management system.

並列關鍵字

Expert system ； Database ； Knowledge based economy ； Agricultural production ； Agrometeorological disaster

國際替代計量

農業氣象資訊在專家決策系統之應用與發展方向

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