Modeling the Impact of Global Warming on Rice Yield in Japan

利用作物模型估計全球暖化對日本水稻產量的影響

陳虹諺(Hung-Yen Chen)

《作物、環境與生物資訊》 13卷2期 (2016/06) Pp. 80-96

https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.201606_13(2).0003

摘要

近年來全球暖化所造成的作物產量減少，會在不同區域因為氣候因子、耕作施肥方式、以及土壤條件而有所不同。本研究提出了一個作物產量模型，用來估計氣候因子，包含區域氣溫、雨量、以及日照量對於作物生長的影響。本研究利用此模型來預測在日本各縣中，暖化對於水稻生長的影響及所造成的產量差異。預測結果顯示，相較於2015 年，日本各縣的年平均水稻產量會在2030 年有著53–194 g m^(-2) 的減少。雖然在過去50 年間，暖化最嚴重的區域是在中部的岡山縣，而產量減少最多的區域卻位於南部的沖繩縣。此結果說明了在不同的環境下，暖化對於水稻產量有著不同程度的影響，而本研究成功的利用了一個簡單的數學模型來估計這些環境因子所造成的區域差異。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 作物模型 ； 區域變化 ； 土壤肥力

並列摘要

The effects of global warming can lead to decreased crop yields on a global scale. However, the extent to which crop yields decline due to the warming may vary among different geographical areas depending on the climatic factors and types of cultivation, fertilization, and soil. In this study, a crop yield-nutrient model was developed to estimate nutrient levels and quantify the contributions of climatic factors in crop yield improvements. The model was used to predict rice yields (given total nutrient levels) as well as the decline in yields in response to increased temperatures, using the estimated baseline nutrient level required for plant growth and the estimated effects of temperature among different prefectures in Japan. Results showed that the predicted temperature increase from 2015 to 2030 could cause a decline in rice yield in the range of 53-194 g m^(-2). The largest percentage decline in the rice yield was predicted for Okinawa prefecture; however, Okayama was the prefecture that had suffered the most serious effects of global warming in Japan during the past 50 years (according to the estimated effects of temperature). It showed that the contributions of rainfall and radiation to plant growth varied geographically (although the difference was small among prefectures). The spatial divergence in nutrient intake levels in crops can be demonstrated with a simple mathematical model.

並列關鍵字

Climatic change ； Crop modeling ； Geographical variation ； Soil fertility