論歐巴馬政府的東亞戰略選擇

A Review of the Obama Administration's East Asia Strategy

張凱銘(Kai-Ming Chang)

《台灣國際研究季刊》 7卷3期 (2011/09) Pp. 175-194

https://doi.org/10.29800/TLSQ.201109.0008

摘要

小布希政府的八年執政，帶領美國深陷反恐戰爭與金融海嘯的泥沼，國力遭受重創。在國力衰退的情況下，美國當局勢將在國際戰略上進行收束，以節約國家資源耗費。但美國在東亞地區陷入兩難：中國的快速崛起以及在區域內影響力的提升，使美國產生濃厚的不安全感與潛在安全憂慮，感到必須提早加以遏阻，以免威脅美國優勢地位與東亞地區利益；這代表美國政府必須在東亞進行戰略擴張以圍堵中國，但這與進行戰略收束以節約國力的方向是相抵觸的。從天安艦事件以來，美國與東亞盟國連續舉行多場聯合軍事演習，同時積極參與區域多邊組織運作，展現出旺盛企圖心與戰略擴張姿態。然而，在國家經濟尚無起色之際，美國目前仍難以在東亞進行持續性的深度干預或對中國進行全面圍堵。本文指出美國目前的東亞戰略運用了選擇性干預戰略之概念，即繼續在東亞保持前沿部署，但促使當地盟國負起更多的安全責任，藉此達到節省國力，但又成功維持影響力的目標。這一戰略的進行須仰賴三個面向的操作：一是提升盟國實力，二是維持盟國合作意願，三是謹慎操作區域安全氛圍。最重要的環節將是對區域安全氛圍的操作，若能成功交替營造適度緊繃與適時緩和的氛圍，美國就能在保持局勢穩定的情況下，維持穩定的安全同盟，並達成戰略目標。換言之，在可預見的未來，基於美國的戰略需要，東亞地區仍將出現許多低強度的爭端與摩擦，恐難維持長期的和諧穩定。

關鍵字

歐巴馬 ； 美國 ； 東亞 ； 離岸平衡 ； 選擇性干預

並列摘要

Under the leadership of George W. Bush and during the eight years of his administration, the United States declared war against terrorism and was swamped in a financial tsunami. The nation's power was seriously undermined. With its national power on the decline, the U.S. government has had to restrain its international strategic deployment in order to conserve national resources. However, this is where the dilemma kicks in. The rapid rise of China and the enhancement of its power in East Asia have made the U.S. feel a deep sense of insecurity and underlying safety concerns. The U.S. must react early to deter China while protecting its superior position and interests in East Asia. This means that the U.S. Government must expand strategically in East Asia in order to contain China, which position, however, is at odds with the necessity of restraining its strategic deployment in order to conserve national resources.The Tian-An Ship incident has led to the U.S. holding many joint military drills with its allies in East Asia and proactively participating in operations of multi-lateral organizations in the region, demonstrating its vigorous ambition and readiness to expand strategically. Nevertheless, before its national economy recovers, the U.S. still cannot engage itself in continuous and advanced interventions or exercise comprehensive containment against China in East Asia. This article indicates that the current strategy of the U.S. in East Asia applies the concept of selective engagement. In other words, the U.S. will continue forward deployment in East Asia while at the same time urging local allies to take on more responsibility to ensure stability. By doing this, the U.S. will be able to conserve its national power and successfully keep its influence at the same time. Implementation of this strategy must rely on three aspects: enhancement of the substantial power of its allies; maintenance of allies' willingness to cooperate; and careful creation of an atmosphere to ensure regional security. The most important part is to create an atmosphere that helps maintain regional security. Through the successful creation of an atmosphere where tension and detente adequately alternate with each other, the U.S. can keep its steady security alliance in a stable situation and accomplish its strategic goals. In other words, in the foreseeable future there will continue to be many low-intensity disputes and frictions in East Asia to meet the U.S.'s strategic needs. Long-term harmony and stability is hardly possible.

並列關鍵字

Obama ； United States ； East Asia ； offshore balancing ； selective engagement

參考文獻

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