我國運動休閒製造業產值及發展趨勢之研究

本研究所指之「運動休閒製造業」，乃爲：「凡從事運動休閒類商品生產之製造業皆屬之」，其產值計算以具有明確產業統計之運動飲料、運動服飾、運動鞋、自行車、體育用品等五個類別作爲計算基準，目的在於以政府各項普查數據及經貿統計等數據，探討有效之運動休閒製造業分類與產業內容，推估我國運動休閒製造業之產業生產總額與毛額，並預測逐年之產值發展趨勢，形成主管機關產業發展趨勢之因應建議。研究方法以資料分析法及採用SPSS for Windows 10.0版套裝軟體進行資料之整理，並以描述性統計與迴歸分析作爲本研究之方法。用線性迴歸預測休閒運動製造業之產值，並透過迴歸檢定方式，檢定各結果產值毛額之上升趨勢或下降趨勢是否達到顯著水準。結論：（一）我國運動休閒製造業生產總額於2006年達新台幣160,333,719千元，產值毛額達到新台幣59,251,959千元；預估2011年運動休閒製造業生產總額達新台幣185,049,112千元，產值毛額達到新台幣68,755,504千元。（二）台灣目前運動休閒製造業產值呈現上升之趨勢，2006年之生產總額成長率爲12.30%，產值毛額成長率爲25.63%；預估2011年運動休閒製造業生產總額成長率達15.41%，產值毛額成長率達16.04。（三）經由迴歸分析法的檢定，發現我國休閒運動產值上升趨勢達顯著水準(P≦0.001)。在運動休閒製造業毛額方面，調整後的R2爲0.960，達顯著性(P=0.001)，達到P值≦0.001，其標準化係數Beta值爲0.984，此一數值也顯示其爲正向成長。顯見我國運動休閒製造業毛額成長上升趨勢達顯著水準。

關鍵字

運動休閒製造業；產值；毛額

並列摘要

Sport and recreation manufacturing in this study refers to ”any manufactory manufactures sport and recreation related goods.” The estimation of its gross income could be based on a clear industrial statistics in terms of the following 5 categories: sport beverage, sport wear, sport shoes, bicycle, and sports goods. By means of analyzing governmental census and economic statistical data, this study was in an attempt to effectively classify industry categories and contents, to predict national sport and recreation manufacturing gross income and gross margin, to predict industry annual development and tendency thus to provide information for government to comply with the market growth. SPSS for Window 10.0 was managed to organize and analyze the collected data by virtue of descriptive and regression statistics. Regression analysis was used to predict sport and recreation manufacturing gross income and to find out whether there is a significant increase or decrease in gross margin. The findings of the study indicate that: 1. The national gross income of sport and recreation manufacturing in 2006 was NT$160,333,719, and the gross margin was NT$59,251,959. It is predicted that the national gross income of sport and recreation manufacturing in 2011 will be NT$185,049,112, and the gross margin will be NT$68,755,504. 2. The gross income of sport and recreation manufacturing in Taiwan has been in a growing status. The growth rate of gross income in 2006 was 12.30%, while the gross margin was 25.63%. The growth rate of gross margin reached to 16.4%. 3. After regression analysis, the study found that both the gross income and gross margin of sport and recreation manufacturing grew significantly.