- 期刊
Co-movement of China Outbound Tourism Demand: Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia
並列摘要
This paper models the conditional volatility and co-movement (or dependence) of the growth rate of the monthly Chinese tourist arrival in Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, using six kinds of copula-GARCH model. Monthly data from January 1998 to June 2012 are used in the empirical analysis. The empirical results suggest positive relationships exist between the conditional shocks in these three countries. Moreover, the variations in monthly Chinese tourist arrivals in Singapore market strong influence of Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand, and vice-versa. This influence weakens in run between Singapore and Malaysia and between Thailand and Malaysia. Third, there is a strongly influence that an extremely high (low) growth rate in monthly Chinese Tourist arrivals in Singapore is likely to follow extremely high (low) growth rate in the monthly Chinese tourist arrivals in Thailand, and vice versa. But this decreases in run between Singapore and Malaysia and between Thailand and Malaysia probably. Forth, the dynamic conditional dependence between the conditional shocks of the three countries is not constant over time which is positive over the time.
延伸閱讀
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