保險市場因子如何影響國際健康支出及國民所得的因果關係、衝擊反應關係、以及風險分散效果

How the Insurance Market Factors Affect the Causality Relationship, Impulse Response, and Mechanism for Risk Sharing between Healthcare Expenditure and GDP?

王冠閔(Kuan-Min Wang)

《評價學報》 11期 (2017/08) Pp. 49-93

摘要

本文利用25個國家1995~2012的年資料，實證檢驗保險市場因子如何影響國際健康支出及國民所得的因果關係、衝擊反應、以及風險分散效果。實證結果發現：(1)長期效果的檢測，國際健康支出風險分散機制不存在，健康支出的所得及人口規模效果十分顯著；而保險因子的影響，保險市場發展對健康支出有正向影響。(2)短期結果的檢測，保險因子加入不影響健康支出、國民所得、及人口數之間的因果關係；而保險市場發展效果具有強外生性。(3)衝擊反應分析結果，保險因子對健康支出多為正向衝擊，但對國民所得的衝擊效果大多不顯著。(4)本文主要的管理意涵是，保險因子變動會藉由國際整合對健康支出及國民所得產生內生化的影響，政府需將此一影響考慮且研擬相關的對應策略。

關鍵字

國際健康支出 ； 保險市場因子 ； 因果關係 ； 衝擊反應關係 ； 風險分散機制

並列摘要

Using the 25 countries 1995~2012 years data, and includes insurance market factors, further establishes multinational empirical model to examine the examination of causality effect, impulse response relationship, and mechanism for risk sharing. Our empirical findings as follow: first, the panel cointegration test results show that the international healthcare expenditure risk sharing mechanism does not exist, but income effect and population size effect are positive and significant. Second, the causality results of the short-run Panel VECM model shows that, the join of insurance factors do not affect the causality relationship between healthcare expenditure, GDP and population. The insurance market development has better strong exogenous. Also, according to errors correction mechanism, the insurance factors have weakly exogenous. Third, the impulse response results shows that: (1) the impact of insurance factors on healthcare expenditure is mostly positive shocks; (2) the impact of insurance factors on GDP have positive and negative shocks, and as well as beating. The impacts of GDP on insurance factors have positive shocks and short-term effects; (3) the impact of insurance factors on population is mostly positive shocks and the effect is short. Finally, we apply relevant economic and policy implication are proposed based on empirical findings.

並列關鍵字

Healthcare Expenditure ； Insurance Market Factors ； Causality Test ； Impulse Response ； Mechanism for Risk Sharing