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土石流潛勢溪流整合型調查與疏散治理規劃之研究-以新北DF049為例

The Study of the Integrated Investigation and Management on Debris Flow-New Taipei City DF049

摘要


本研究利用過去台灣大學氣候天氣災害研究中心於新北市進行土石流潛勢溪流之保全戶校正,與42條高、中優先處理順序的調查規劃成果,提出一整合型的土石流調查與疏散治理減災規劃,此方法係以每一條土石流潛勢溪流及其集水區為單位,進行包含基本資料蒐集、現場細部調查、災害潛勢分析、影響範圍劃定、疏散避難路線規劃或檢討、整治工法建議等六大項目的完整規劃。依據土石流潛勢溪流溪床坡降、集水區坡度、雨量的延時與強度,以及現地調查後鬆散土方堆積料源的多寡、型態與位置,整合三項資訊進行土石流發生潛勢的判斷,並配合Liu and Huang(2006)的土石流動態模擬程式進行土石流影響範圍、流速與流深的模擬,整合模擬的結果進而提供疏散避難路線規劃檢討與整治工法建議等防災規劃之量化依據,以期達到土石流防災與避災之目的。本研究以新北DF049土石流潛勢溪流為例,詳細說明其規劃的步驟內容,除可供相關人員做為參考,並可應用至其他的土石流潛勢溪流之整體規劃中。依據現地勘查結果,新北DF049土石流潛勢溪流現地料源總體積量約為672 m^3,依據料源條件估算所得到的土石流總體積量為1865 m^3,若考慮50年頻率分析之水量與料源總體積量都轉化為土石流,則估算之土石流體積量3543 m^3;考慮土石流的發生必須同時滿足夠的水量與堆積料源,因此土石流影響範圍的模擬採土石流總體積量1865 m^3來進行估算,土石流模擬結果顯示,土石流潛勢溪流下游青山路及附近民宅將會受到影響,這樣的結果與過去納莉颱災於現地曾發生的土石流災害事件相當吻合。工程整治建議於下游谷口處設置高3m之攔砂壩,進行整治後動態模擬的結果顯示,上游的土石流將被攔阻在壩體前,這樣的攔阻工法將有助於縮小土石流的影響範圍。參考影響範圍數值模擬結果,在相關建議之整治工程完成前乃採用既有的避難疏散路線規劃以作為安全考量。

並列摘要


The integrated management of potential debris flow torrent formulation will introduce in this study. The content are integrating experiences of investigation and mitigation of 42 important potential debris flow torrents in Taipei County past 5 years. The process which is focused on independent watershed of each potential debris flow torrent, and which program including the basic geotechnical analysis, the field investigation and the analysis of potential hazard zone. After that, there are evacuation planning for delimit the projected objects and refuge route. The suggestion of the control engineering of potential debris flow torrent could be also planned. The Debris_2D model (Liu and Huang, 2006) is use to accommodate velocity, depth and potential hazard zone of potential debris flow torrent and those information are very useful in the subsequent mitigate plans. An example of New Taipei City DF049 potential debris flow torrent is demonstrated following. There are field solid source about 672 m^3, and the total volume of debris about 1865 m^3 under equilibrium concentration model established and 3543 m^3 under 50 years periodic model established. The suggestion of the control engineering of potential debris flow torrent is constructed dam (3 m high) on the rill outlet for helpful decrease the area of potential hazard zone. Besides, the original refuge route is remained for safety considerable.

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