習近平主政時期中共對台政治對話的布局分析

Analysis of the Arrangement about the CCP's political Dialogue Policy to Taiwan in the Ruling Period of Xi Jinping

余建瑩(Chien-Ying Yu)

指導教授 ： 陳明通

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201610011

摘要

習近平上任正式接班後，便高喊「中國夢」，儼然成為習近平政府的綜合執政理念，而他卸任之際，正好是「兩個百年」的建黨百年，中共勢必放大檢視其政績。同時，台灣馬英九總統也進入第二任期的倒數階段，已無連任壓力，將追求本身的歷史定位。由此來看，習與馬個人因素都有動機在兩岸關係中突破，那就勢必需要處理兩岸的政治問題。
本研究將探討習近平主政時期中共對台政治對話的布局，在此之前也將針對前三任領導人的對台政策在兩岸間形成何種環境與政治對話基礎進行探討。本研究認為鑒於中共對台政策有強烈的「一貫性」與「連續性」，中共對台政治對話基礎就是承襲「一個中國原則」，但在對話的對象與議題設定，會因不同客觀需求而時與並進。
習近平任內，可以觀察到中共至今一連串「政治對話」制度化的設計，民間由學術界舉辦論壇來討論高度政治性的議題，以求增進了解、凝聚共識；持續地與台灣高層政治人物透過不同管道來見面。其中最重要的就是習近平對政府對話機制的設計，由原本兩會協商模式處理經貿交流等事務性議題，提高到兩岸事務首長會面，最終促成兩岸領導人會面－馬習會。但馬習會不是習近平的最終目標，面對2016年台灣總統大選以及極有可能發生的政黨輪替，馬習會的目的是為了未來的執政黨而設定的政治對話框架。

關鍵字

兩岸政治對話 ； 馬習會 ； 兩岸事務首長會談 ； 兩岸領導人會談 ； 中共對台政策

並列摘要

After Xi Jinping's succession, he trumpets "Chinese Dream", and it seems to be his comprehensible concept of his policies. It is the time the Communist Party of China to celebrate its centenary in 2021 before his term ends, Xi's achievements will be examined critically about the "Two Centenary Goals". On the other hand, it will be the last of President Ma Yingjeou's second term, he doesn't have the pressure of running for re-election, and he will dedicate himself to chase his historic position. So, Xi and Ma both have lots of motivation to break through the predicament between cross-strait, they should try to solve the political problem.
This research attempt to analyze the arrangement about CCP's policy of political dialogue to Taiwan in the ruling period of Xi Jinping, and also about the environment and foundation of the cross-strait relationship made by the three leaders' Taiwan policy before. According to the fact that Chinese Communist Party's Taiwan policy is both consistent and continuous, its first principle of political dialogue, "One China Principle" , has never changed, but the issue assigned and the dialogue target will change when different demand occurs in time.
Xi Jinping made institutionalized design to boost political dialogue to Taiwan. Holding forums by academia unofficially, discussing high-political problems would increase realization and conducive to consensus building. And there are several channel of communication between important politicians across the strait. More importantly, Xi also designed the officially dialogue mechanism, from the functional negotiation between Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), Meeting between Heads of Cross-Strait Competent Authorities, to the meeting between cross-strait leaders, Ma-Xi meeting in 2015. But it is not his ultimate aim, considering Taiwan presidential election in 2016 and party alternation seems to occur, Xi's real goal is setting the dialogue framework to future ruling party.

並列關鍵字

cross-strait political dialogue ； Xi Jinping ； Ma–Xi meeting ； meeting between cross-strait leaders ； CCP’s Taiwan policy

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