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  • 學位論文

臺灣農業收入的追蹤資料模型分析

Panel Data Analysis of Agricultural Revenue in Taiwan

指導教授 : 周治邦
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摘要


過去研究僅使用農林漁牧業普查的單年間斷的個體資料,或是僅使用加總的資料,而本研究則是將2000年、2005年與2010年普查的專業與兼業農家個體資料建構成追蹤資料模型(固定效果),以探討影響農家農業收入的主要因素。研究重要結果如下: 1. 可耕作地面積投入受邊際報酬遞減法則的影響,以致兼業農家因投入規模小使得收入增加幅度較高,而專業農家因投入之規模大,而使收入增加幅度較低。平均而言,專業農家不需要繼續增加土地投入;但兼業農家增加土地投入能使收入增加。 2. 無論是自有或是非自有的土地所有權,對農家收入影響差異不大;租、借用額外的可耕作地都能幫助收入增加。 3. 在經營者與家庭特徵方面,有4項發現: i. 年輕的男性經營者在偏向勞力密集的農業經營仍較佔優勢,具有較高的生產力,使農業收入得到改善。 ii. 經營管理者的教育年數(國民教育)對收入較無直接影響力,而如改以農民學院等的農業技術認證來估計人力資本較理想。 iii. 家庭成員的投入多寡對農家的農業收入並無顯著影響。 4. 由主要經營種類來看,除了雜糧經營(專業農家)、食用菇蕈類(兼業農家)、豬隻經營與鴨隻經營外,甘蔗經營對農業收入增加影響非常大。此一結果亦顯示,如僅以單年度的間斷型資料之分析方式,會使分析容易產生缺漏。

並列摘要


The purpose of this research is to model the households’ behavior and their income through constructing the panel data model (fixed effect) with the data from the agricultural census in Taiwan in 2000, 2005 and 2010, seeking to bridge the gap for previous agricultural income related researches, in most of which only aggregate data or data in one single year were used. By studying the behaviors of full-time households and part-time households, the researcher reached the following conclusions: 1. The inputs from cultivated land are affected by the law of diminishing marginal returns. That is, the agricultural income of the part-time households increases more because of their fewer inputs and they should increase more inputs; whereas, the agricultural income of the full-time households increases less because of their more inputs. 2. Concerning land ownership, renting or buying more inputs of cultivated land are both helpful to income. 3. Four findings about the characteristics of the managers and their family are found. i. Younger male managers are at an advantage in the labor-intensive agricultural industry. They are also more productive in increasing income. ii. The education level of the managers does not have a direct correlation with income. A more reasonable measure would be to predict agricultural income by other certificates, such as the certificates of the Farmers’ Academy (Council of Agriculture). iii. The participation of the family members does not have a strong correlation with agricultural income. 4. Besides coarse grain planting (for full-timer), mushroom planting (for part-timer), ducks raising and hogs raising, sugarcane planting has a great impact on agricultural income. This finding is rarely shown in previous researches, indicating the drawbacks of limited data source.

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