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  • 學位論文

異常事件對於顧客價值之影響效果 -總體時間序列模型之研究

The Impact of Abnormal Event to Customer Value -A Research of Time Series Model in An Aggregate View

指導教授 : 任立中

摘要


行銷人員對企業所能產生的最大貢獻,就是想盡辦法提高企業的顧客價值。而所謂顧客價值的提升,從策略的角度觀之有兩個面向:一是從提升顧客願付價格著手,一是降低成本。使用這相同的邏輯思維運用到顧客資料庫之運用上。行銷研究人員透過模型建立以及消費者行為分析,協助企業去做更精準的行銷活動以讓消費者提高其願付價格。此外從過去的消費者消費記錄,也可從中觀察消費者是否有離開或是降低購買意願等的情況,及早阻止顧客離開。造成顧客離開的原因主要可分為二種。一種是顧客正常的流失;另一種原因卻是,顧客因為企業遇到某些異常事件的影響而導致其離開。行銷人員是否能利用其知識,對異常事件進行正確的判斷,對顧客因異常事件離開所造成的顧客價值影響進行正確評估,提報企業擬定應變之計,在未來是愈來愈不可避免的議題。 本研究以國內網路公司為個案,以時間序列介入模型的方式,進行該公司因異常事件對其公司顧客價值所造成之影響效果的研究。從行銷理論的產品生命週期理論以及統計觀點的Chow-Test轉變點檢定的檢視,證明該公司在其所宣稱事件發生日時確有發生異常事件,並對顧客價值產生影響效果。本研究在比較了四個介入模型的模型預測力以及判定係數之後,確定並建立了以ARIMA(2,1,1and5)第一階階段介入函數模型對事件對顧客價值影響進行分析,最終計算出異常事件對於企業之顧客價值所造成的影響效果高達45484290元。

並列摘要


The most valuable marketing people are who can help their companies improve customer value most. From strategic perspective, to improve customer value can be done in two ways. On the one hand is to improve the price customers will pay; on the other hand is to lower the costs. In addition by constructing model and consumer behavior analysis, marketing people can improve the price customers willing to pay in terms of more precise marketing activities, marketing people can also respond actively to the situation of customer leaving by observing the transaction data of customers. There are two reasons will result in customers leaving. One is that disappear naturally, and the other is that results from abnormal events deriving from the competitors or environment. Thus, analyze and evaluate these events which will make impact to the customer value of the company, caution the manager for the damage as well as make marketing strategy to respond the impact is an evitable task for marketing people in the future. The case company in this thesis is an on-line company. This research use the Chow-test of breakpoint test of time-series method and product life cycle theory to prove that there was an abnormal event happened in this company. After comparing the coefficient of determination, RMSE and MAPE, this research then find out a ARIMA(2,1,1and5) first-step step-function intervention model which is better to model and analyse the event. Finally, the impact resulted from the event caused customer value loss of N.T. 45484290 dollars to the company.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


曾建豪(2010)。網路消費者行為之網站造訪期間對購買期間之影響性-以Amazon.com為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2010.01792
林佩瑩(2009)。台北市傳統零售市場消費型態之分析-分量迴歸模型之應用〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2009.00484

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