中文摘要 根據統計,台灣近幾年的總生育率約在1左右,而高齡人口的數目也占超過總人口的10%,扶養比逐年上升且人口老化趨勢轉為嚴峻,這對內涵世代契約(generational contract)精神的社會保險制度,以及家庭內的供養制度造成危機。 對將來的估計,總生育率持續低迷,而高齡人口卻快速攀升,如此的人口變遷困境將影響著每位民眾退休後老年經濟安全的穩定性,因此世界銀行(World Bank)也在2005年提出了多層次老年經濟保障模式,來穩固未來可能出現的老年貧窮問題;相同地,台灣面臨一樣的人口變遷衝擊,所以大抵上依循著世界銀行的多層次老年經濟保障模式來改革老年經濟安全。 研究者關注的是深受少子女化和高齡化影響的社會保險制度、家庭供養制度,採用深度訪談法進行研究,透過臉書(facebook)的選樣、MAXQDA2007質性軟體協助進行文本的「剪裁」與「歸類」以及紮根理論式的分析方法,了解台北市20-30歲、40-50歲兩世代對社會保險世代契約觀及家庭供養觀的看法。 研究發現,世代間現在因為面臨同樣的大環境不佳的困境,世代契約觀大抵上相同世代內皆有支持與懷疑世代契約觀的觀點;而家庭供養觀與世代契約觀呈現相同的趨勢,此外,研究者也將本研究所整理出來的世代契約觀點與國外學理進行對話,企圖找出台灣本地的社會保險世代契約觀特徵。研究者也嘗試利用訪談結果,對於目前的社會保險政策與家庭供養政策提出建言。 關鍵詞:少子女化、高齡化、世界銀行、世代契約、家庭供養
Abstract According to statistics, in Taiwan, the total fertility has been around 1 and the persons aged 65+ have increased to over 10% of total population in recent years. The support ratio has increased year by year and the situation of aging is more serious, implying a kind of crisis that social insurance with the principle of PAYG generational contract and traditional family support could collapse. Estimation for the future the demographic change with much lower total fertility as well as the population with age 65+ increasing quickly, the stability of old-age economic security after retirement will be impacted remarkably, so that in 2005 the World Bank proposed the multi-tier system to solve poverty problems in old age. Correspondingly, Taiwan has to face the same circumstance of demographic shock, and mostly follow the proposal of a multi-tier system, to reform its old-age economic security system. The researcher focuses on the Taiwanese social insurance system and family support influenced by lower total fertility and demographic aging. The researcher adopts in-depth interview method, by calling for cases through facebook and categorizing as well as sorting texts with MAXQDA2007 software. Finally, the researcher bases on grounded theory to understand two generations of aged 20-30 and 40-50 about their perspectives of social insurance with generational contract and family support. In the end, this study finds that there is a common view of generational contract with attitude of supporting and doubting between 20-30 and 40-50, because they all face the tough circumstances like demographic change, economic problems, etc. Meanwhile, family support is the same trend like generational contract. In addition, the researcher tries to link the theory of generational contract and real perspectives by in-depth interview, in an attempt to look for native traits of social insurance with principles of generational contract in Taiwan. Eventually, the researcher also addresses suggestions to government for social insurance and family support policies by conclusions from research findings. Keywords: lower total fertility, aging, Word Bank, generational contract, family support
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