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  • 學位論文

國際工程投標階段風險評估

Risk Evaluation on International Project in Bidding Stage

指導教授 : 曾惠斌

摘要


在全球經濟合作和技術交流規模的不斷擴大及國內公共工程投資量的日漸減少趨勢下,台灣營造業走入國際營建市場與世界各國營造公司競爭,獲取國際工程承包以維持公司營運,是目前國內大型營造公司不可避免的課題。 國內營造公司投入國際工程市場,應對國際工程市場充滿各種潛在風險充分了解。投標階段的決策對複雜且風險高的國際工程非常重要,得標後風險一旦發生如果沒有預先考慮週全,將給承包商帶來不可估量的,甚至是致命的損失。 本研究經由對文獻的整理、歸納及專家的確認,識別出國際工程投標階段的風險因素。這些風險因素分兩個層面,一個層面是「國別風險」,另一個是「專案風險」。工程所在國家區域的「國別風險」評估結果,若風險程度在欲投標營造公司可接受範圍內時,再進行第二階段的「專案風險」評估。將識別出的風險因素加以系統化成為風險因素層級架構。調查問卷利用風險因素層級架構,設計為風險因素間兩兩比較相對重要性,再尋求6位有豐富國際工程執行經驗的專家對兩風險因素間相對重要性程度的看法。運用模糊層級分析法作為風險量化分析的數學基礎,建立國際工程投標階段風險評估模型。將問卷調查結果以評估模型模糊數計算各風險因素權重值,本研究依此權重值製作成國際工程投標階段風險評估表,提供給參加國際工程投標的營造公司作為決策時風險評估的工具。 最後應用本研究成果的國際工程投標階段風險評估表,對實際工程案例進行評分演練,驗證該評估表的正確性及簡便性。

並列摘要


In the growing of global economic cooperation and technological exchanges circumstance as well as the trend of declining public works investment in Taiwan, It is currently the inevitable subject for big construction contractors in Taiwan to join the global highly competitive construction market and compete with construction contractors around the world, in order to get the international project contracting to maintain company’s operation. Before domestic construction contractors join the international construction market, it should be fully understood that international construction projects full of potential risks. It is very important to make right decision in bidding stage for complex and high risk international construction project. If you have not evaluated risk thoroughly in bidding stage, once risk occurs, it will bring immeasurable loss or even fatal damage to the contractor. This research identify international project’s risk factors in bidding stage through sort out, select and conclude literature, and invite the expert to confirmed that. These risk factors divided into two levels, one level is "country risk", another is "project risk". When risk level of "country risk" is within contractor’s acceptable range, again for the second stage of "project risk" assessment. We systematize the identified risk factors to build a hierarchy framework. Applying the hierarchy framework, questionnaire was designed for the comparison of relative importance between two risk factors in this framework. Six experts, with extensive international project experience, were consulted on the degree of importance between two risk factors in their own perspective. This research applies the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process as a mathematical base for a quantitative analysis of the risk. On the basis of this process, we set up an international project risk evaluation model in bidding stage. Based on the questionnaire survey results, applying the fuzzy number of model to calculate risk factor’s weight values, According to these weight values, we established a table of risk evaluation in bidding stage for international project to help dicision making. The risk evaluation table provides construction contractors who participating in the international project bidding with risk assessment tool. Finally applied the findings of international project’s risk assessment in bidding stage table for a particular project’s risk assessment, verify the correctness and simplicity of the assessment table.

參考文獻


〔18〕Seung H. Han、Sang H. Park、Du Y. Kim、Hyoungkwan Kim、Yun W. Kang (2007),Causes of Bad Profit in Overseas Construction Projects,ASCE,DEC. 2007. 
〔19〕MacGraw-Hill Construction Research & Analytics/ENR, August 27, 2012.
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