國民黨立委選舉提名策略研究 2012年和2016年立委選舉刺客戰術之應用

The study of the KMT nomination strategy in the legislator campaigns-the application of the assassin tactics in the legislator campaigns in 2012 and 2016

張書維(Shu-Wei Chang)

指導教授 ： 王業立

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201802950

摘要

在面對敵對政黨堅強的現任者優勢，政黨短時間內無法派出與其相匹敵的候選人，為突破對手雄厚基層實力，政黨往往會推出知名度高的社會賢達人士，或是形象清新的政治素人，甚至是空降部隊突襲重圍，而這樣的選戰策略被稱為刺客戰術。國民黨於2012年及2016年接連推派刺客，塑造改革形象，藉此吸引選民目光，本文旨在探討國民黨立委提名策略中的刺客戰術，筆者透過深度訪談兩屆國民兩黨操盤手、刺客及對手後，將其提名過程意義完整還原。本文發現，國民黨之所以連兩屆使用刺客戰術，除了執政包袱造就大環境不佳，使得黨內產生棄選潮，另一原因則是國民黨內正規的人才甄補不足，所以才被迫徵召非正規的刺客上陣。儘管國民黨兩屆都派出刺客，但兩屆類型卻不同，2012年刺客大多非政二代、空降多、具有較強形象魅力；2016年刺客多為政二代、派系傳承，在地連結力較強。而本文也發現，刺客如與地方派系有淵源，成功的機率較高；如果刺客無派系、無背景，則應挑戰都市化較高的選區，刺客效果較佳。

關鍵字

選舉刺客 ； 國民黨 ； 立委選舉 ； 提名制度 ； 地方派系

並列摘要

In the face of the strong incumbent advantage of the hostile party, the party cannot have a corresponding candidate to compete in a short period of time. In order to confront the strong grassroots strength of the opponent, the political party will often select a well-known social talent or a fresh political figure, even the “airborne trooper”, to make a breakthrough in the campaign, of which strategy is called an assassin tactic.In 2012 and 2016, the Kuomintang successively selected assassins to shape the image of reforms and to attract voters' attention. This study aimed to explore the assassin tactics practiced in the nomination strategy of the Kuomintang legislators. The author reconstructed the meaning of the nomination process in these two elections through in-depth interviews with campaign managers, assassins, and the opponents in both parties.This study found the reason the assassin tactics were practiced by the Kuomintang for two consecutive elections was the poor environment caused by the incumbent burden, which led to the abandonment of the candidates within the party. Another reason was that the formal talents in the Kuomintang were insufficiently selected, which forced Kuomintang to recruit non-formal assassins. Although the Kuomintang selected assassins in both elections, the types of them were different. In 2012, most of the assassins were non-political, non-governmental, and “airborne” candidates who have much stronger image charms. In 2016, the assassins were mostly second-generation politicians who have faction inheritance and strong connections with the locals. The study also found that assassins had a high probability of success if they had a relationship with local factions; if the assassins had no faction and no background, they were suggested to compete in the higher urbanized constituencies to gain better assassin effects.

並列關鍵字

election assassin ； Kuomintang ； legislator election ； nomination system ； local factions

參考文獻

王金壽，2004a，〈瓦解中的地方派系：以屏東為例〉，《台灣社會學》，7：177-207。

中文書目

丁仁方，1999，〈統合化、半侍從結構與台灣地方派系的轉型〉，《政治科學論叢》， 10：59-61。

王國臣、吳重禮，2016，〈選制改革對於投票穩定與變遷的影響：臺灣五次立委　　　

　　選舉的實證分析〉，《選舉研究》，23(1)：65-105。