歐洲主權債務危機對全球經濟影響之研究

A Study of the Influence on Global Economy of European Sovereign Debt Crisis

李素芳(Su-Fang Li)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.10337

摘要

2008年金融海嘯重創全球經濟與金融，迫使各國再以擴張政策提振經濟，導致各國政府赤字與債務暴增，並於2010年引爆歐豬五國主權債務危機，造成歐元持續貶值及金融市場劇烈震盪，全球經濟更顯疲弱。然而主權債務危機首先由歐元區南方國家陸續發難，係有其社會、經濟及制度問題所致。為避免危機蔓延，EU、IMF及ECB推出一系列緊急紓困措施，惟為確保經濟長期穩健發展，危機國家應由改善社會經濟結構及控制預算赤字等財政重整計畫，方能提升國家競爭力及維持財政永續。鑒於歐洲已是全球第一大經濟體，歐債危機導致歐洲經濟成長趨緩，透過心理、經貿及金融層面影響全球及台灣經濟。尤其台灣係貿易導向的小型開放經濟體，國內經濟表現易受國際經濟情勢影響，值得關注及省思。本文將檢視金融危機相關文獻，深入探討金融危機主要原因與相互關係。再來，解析歐債危機的成因與因應措施，進而評估其未來走向及解決之道。接著，探討財政重整的爭議，政府如何於財政撙節與經濟成長間取得平衡。最後，分析歐債危機對全球及台灣經濟的影響。同時，反觀台灣經濟、金融、財政及債務狀況，提出相關改革建議。

關鍵字

金融危機 ； 貨幣危機 ； 銀行危機 ； 債務危機 ； 系統性金融危機 ； 歐債危機 ； 歐洲主權債務危機

並列摘要

The financial crisis of 2008 hit the global economy and finance heavily. As a result, most of the world’s countries have adopted monetary policies and stimulus expanding measures in an effort to boost the economy. However, massive national fiscal deficits and soaring public debt contributed to the 2010 European sovereign-debt crisis which caused severe financial market shocks and turmoil, Euro currency depreciation, and a worldwide slowdown of the economy. Social, economic and systemic problems of southern European states triggered the Eurozone debt crisis. In order to avoid contagion triggered by the debt crisis, the European Union, International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank launched a series of emergency bailout measures. For long-term stable economic growth, the crisis-affected countries have been tasked to carry out socio-economic structural reforms and fiscal consolidation to fire up national competitiveness and maintain financial sustainability. Since the EU is already the world’s largest economy, the European debt crisis has slowed down economic growth in Europe, and has also impacted the global economy, including Taiwan, in terms of psychological, international trade and financial aspects. As a small trade-oriented open economy, Taiwan is vulnerable to international economic situations. Therefore, it is important to give important attention to events like the Eurozone debt crisis. This thesis examines the financial crisis literature as well as the causes and relationship of financial crises. Second, it focuses on the causes of the debt crisis and coping measures, in order to assess future direction and solutions. Third, controversial fiscal consolidation is explored, and how governments strike a balance between austerity and economic growth. Finally, an analysis of the impact of the European debt crisis on the global economy and in Taiwan. The economic, financial, fiscal and debt situation in Taiwan, as well as suggestions for reform, are also covered.

並列關鍵字

financial crisis ； currency crisis ； banking crisis ； foreign debt crisis ； systematic financial crisis ； European Sovereign Debt Crisis

參考文獻

Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart (1998), “Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and Tenth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1998), pp. 444-448, American Economic Association.

Bernanke, Ben S. and Mark Gertler (1995), “Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,” NBER Working Papers, No. 5146.

Bornbusch, Rudiger, Goldfajn, I. and Valdes, R.(1995), “Currency Crises and Collapses ”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, pp. 219-295.

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Enrica Detragiache (1998a), “The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed countries ”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol.45, pp. 81-109.

Dianmond D. and Dybvig, P. (1983), “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance and Liquidity”, Journal Political Economy, Vol. 91, pp. 401-419.