製程技術變遷下技術採納決策之經濟分析

An Economic Theory of Process Technology Migration for Technology Adoption–The Semiconductor Microchip Case

范欽姵(Chin-Pei Fan)

指導教授 ： 周雍強

國立臺灣大學/工學院/工業工程學研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.01387

摘要

技術進步往往對高科技產業結構帶來重大影響，而半導體產業具有製程技術更迭迅速、產品生命週期短暫特性；然而，隨著製程不斷微縮，技術複雜度與製程、設計成本相繼提升，使得製程進步速度減緩，並且半導體廠商不再積極採用先進製程採納策略，越代製程決策成為半導體廠商的競爭策略之一。
　　本論文藉由晶圓產能生產力指標，衡量產業製程供需落差趨勢，並發現主流製程與先進製程之世代差距遞增，產業不再採用循序漸進的製程採納策略之轉折現象。其次，建構半導體生產成本之動態系統架構模型，將生產成本分為三個構面：設計成本、製造成本與規模經濟，並建立製程世代下晶圓生產平均成本效率前沿，作為半導體廠商製程技術採納決策的基礎。
　　最後，建立多次製程技術採納動態規劃模型，解決多階段決策過程最佳化之研究議題，並發現製程進步所帶來的收益成長率愈高，廠商愈有意採納先進製程，其成長率的遞增更促使廠商採取越代製程策略。此外，驗證設計成本與製造成本遞增為促使半導體產業發生越代現象之關鍵因素，當設計成本呈指數遞增趨勢愈明顯，規模經濟效應將愈顯著，形成半導體產業間規模經濟競爭，使得廠商透過規模經濟的低價競爭策略吸引大量市場需求，獲取高比例之產業利潤，此一因素促使採用舊製程之廠商採取越代製程決策意願上升。

關鍵字

跨代製程 ； 動態規劃 ； 產業趨勢轉折 ； 技術採納 ； 半導體製造 ； 動態系統 ； 產品生命週期

並列摘要

Technological progress usually makes a great impact on high-tech industry. Semiconductor industry is faced with rapid technology progress and short product lifecycle. However, since design cost and manufacturing cost increase substantially, process technology advancement rate decreases. Firms used to adopt the newest technology, but now node-skipping strategy becomes one of semiconductor firms’ best competitive strategy.
This research uses Capacity Productivity index to measure the gap between main process technology and advanced process technology. Then, we develop a dynamic system of production cost which includes design cost, manufacturing system cost and economies of scale. Moreover, we construct an average wafer cost function for different technology process, and use it to assist firms in adopting technology.
Finally, we develop a technology adoption model by using dynamic programming method. The results show that when the revenue growth rate of technology advancement increases, firms intend to adopt advanced technology process. Besides, this research proves that the substantial increase of design cost and manufacturing cost are the key factors to make firms adopt node-skipping strategy. If the design cost increase more substantial, economies of scale will be more conspicuous. In order to acquire higher revenue, firms adopt the low price strategy to attract more demands. As a result, firms which have older technology process want to adopt node-skipping strategy.

並列關鍵字

Technology node skipping ； Dynamic programming ； Technology migration ； Technology adoption ； Dynamic system ； Product lifecycle

參考文獻

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