臺灣及日本主要糧食作物糧食安全風險指標之建構

The Construction of a Food Security Risk Index in Taiwan and Japan

詹凱傑(Kai-Chieh Chan)

指導教授 ： 吳榮杰

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.01449

摘要

糧食安全是全球關注的重要議題。糧食安全雖然已有公認的定義，聯合國糧農組織（Food and Agricultural Organization，FAO）或各國政府、研究機構亦研擬了不同的糧食安全指標，希望能藉此反映一國糧食安全的程度，然這些指標基本上適用在衡量各國糧食供給量或消費熱能的的「足夠性」和�或「普及性」層次。

對於依賴糧食進口較深，且平時糧食供需不虞匱乏，分配情形較佳的臺灣、日本或韓國等糧食淨進口國而言，以FAO所建議的DES等糧食安全指標，或者其他傳統指標所衡量的糧食安全程度，均無法充分顯示出這些國家對於糧食安全的不安全感。

本研究從糧食供給的角度為出發點，應用投資組合理論發展出衡量稻米、玉米、大豆、小麥等各項主要糧食作物來自國內生產、進口及庫存三個供給構面的綜合性風險指標，作為用以衡量糧食淨進口國所迫切關心的糧食安全穩定性的「糧食安全風險指標」（Food Security Risk Index，FSRI）。

實證分析顯示本文所發展的糧食安全風險指標，確實能忠實反映我國及日本在過去20年來受國際糧食價格波動、逐步開放進口等各項因素所造成的糧食安全穩定性，是可用以彌補各種傳統糧食安全指標功能之不足的一項實用糧食安全指標。

關鍵字

糧食安全糧食供給 ； 糧食價格 ； 主要糧食作物 ； 投資組合理論

並列摘要

Food security is one of the most important issues in the world. Although Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) acknowledges its definition, the FAO, different countries, and research institutes all develop various kinds of food security indices to reflect the level of food security among target countries.

Based on the current income level, distribution and calorie consumption per capita in the net-import countries of Taiwan, Japan, and Korea, there are no food availability or access problems under traditional food security indices as defined by the FAO. However, the stability of food supply is a threat in these countries. The traditional food security indices do not fully reflect these countries’ ability to ensure domestic food security or their level of food security.

The research of this thesis uses the concept of portfolio theory to measure the portfolio risk of rice, maize, soybeans and wheat arising from domestic production, import, and stockpiling sources within Taiwan and Japan. Empirical results show that when international food prices fluctuate, the FSRI of these staple crops will be affected greatly, which could more adequately reflect the level of food security in Taiwan and Japan for the past 20 years.

並列關鍵字

Food Security ； Food Supply ； Food Prices ； Staple Crop ； Portfolio Theory

參考文獻

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