國內移民之動態分析

A Dynamic Analysis of Rural-to-Urban Migration

林立程(Li-Cheng Lin)

指導教授 ： 陳虹如

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.01703

摘要

一個國家在經濟成長的過程中, 都市化扮演了相當重要的角色, 都市化表徵於大量的人口向都市遷移的過程,遷移的過程中伴隨著規模經濟、聚集效果等現象, 帶動了經濟成長,然而都市化是一個動態的過程,即便在已開發國家,都市化仍不斷地進行著, 然而過去的文獻往往重於解釋人口向都市遷移的原因,以及城鄉工資差異的現象, 而忽略了都市化是不斷且持續的動態過程,本文欲在 Harris and Todaro(1970)的基本假設與概念出發,建立一個一般均衡的兩部門兩期世代交疊(Over-lapping Generation) 模型,其中我們內生化了生育率以及提供小孩教育的決策於模型中,我們重新描述都市化原因,並且刻劃人口向都市遷移的動態過程, 而都市化的過程中產生了自然增加率與社會增加率的排擠效果,除此之外,建構這個更一般化且具有動態的模型有助於應用於其他政策分析。

關鍵字

國內移民 ； 都市化 ； 動態分析 ； 一般均衡

並列摘要

The process of urbanization plays an important role in the economic growth of a country. Urbanization stands for the phenomenon that large number of population moving to the urban area, along with the situations causing economic growth, such as economies of scale and agglomeration effects. Urbanization is a dynamic process, and even in the developed countries it is still an ongoing phenomenon. However, previous literature often focuses on discussing the reasons why households choose to migrate to urban, and the difference of labor wages between urban and rural areas, overlooking the fact that urbanization is a dynamic and continuous process. Based on Harris and Todaro (1970), this paper develops a general equilibrium model with two-sector, two-period overlapping generations. In this model, we endogenize fertility choice and the decision-making of children’s education, in order to discuss the reasons for urbanization and to describe the dynamic process of migration toward urban area. The process of urbanization results in the exclusion effect of rates of natural and social increase. In addition, the model built in this paper can help ana;yze the effects of other polices.

並列關鍵字

rural-to-urabm migration ； urbanization ； dynamic analysis

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