蒙古地區氣候變遷與發展造成Ugii湖水質之影響

Impacts of the Climate Change and Development on the Water Quality of Ugii Nuur Lake in Mongolia

呂浩仰(Hao-Yang Lu)

指導教授 ： 吳先琪

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201704078

摘要

此研究主要的目的是評估氣候變遷和地區性的發展對Ugii湖水水質所造成的影響。從2015及2016兩年現場水質監測資料及歷史資料分析可得結論為（1）Ugii湖在夏天有明顯的分層現象，（2）Ugii湖有明顯的高總溶解性固體濃度的特性。利用CE-QUAL-W2模式模擬未來大氣變遷RCP4.5情境和RCP 8.5情境所得結果之結論為（1）Ugii湖的總溶解性固體濃度在未來將會持續提升，（2）氣候變遷，確實顯著的影響Ugii湖中溶解性固體濃度的惡化程度。此模擬的結果應能提供給蒙古地區水資源管理當局在管理Ugii湖水質時做為參考。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 蒙古地區的發展 ； Ugii湖 ； CE-QUAL-W2模式 ； 大氣環流模式 ； 總溶解性固體

並列摘要

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of the climate change and development in the vicinity area on the water quality of Ugii Lake in Mongolia. On-site monitoring data in 2015 and in 2016 were adopted to assess the status of Ugii Lake. The results of model simulation by using CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model was adopted to reveal the problems of Ugii Lake that may occur in the future, while forecast of meteorological data was generated by HadGEM2-ES model, one of the general circulation models (GCMs), under RCP 4.5 scenario and under RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Based on the on-site monitoring data it is found that there are (a) clear stratification in Ugii Lake in the summer, and (b) increase of total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration in the last decade. Results of simulation by using CE-QUAL-W2 model reveal that (a) Ugii Lake would experience significant increase of TDS in the future, and (b) climate change could accelerate the deterioration of water quality. The results of this study can be provided to the local water resource management authorities as a basis for Ugii Lake management.

並列關鍵字

climate change ； river basin development ； Ugii Lake ； CE-QUAL-W2 model ； general circulation models (GCMs) ； total dissolved solids (TDS)

參考文獻

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