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  • 學位論文

探討東協及中國自由貿易協定原產地規則的貿易效果:以汽車產業為例

The Trade Effects of Rules of Origin in ASEAN and China: A Case Study of the Automotive Industry

指導教授 : 杜震華
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摘要


東亞區域發展的步伐在近十幾年來有加快的趨勢,在這股區域整合的浪潮當中,以東協加一、東協加三、東協加六等議題甚為重要,有鑑於近年台灣的主要出口貿易對象主要是中國與東協,因此選擇東協及中國所簽署的自由貿易協定(ASEAN and China Free Trade Agreement, ACFTA)做為研究重心,而且聚焦於用以決定商品的原產身分的貨物原產地規則。本研究採用Tinbergen(1962)與Poyhonen(1963)提出的貿易引力模型,透過Estevadeordal(2000)所建構的限制性指數以評量汽車產品的原產地規則,另加上標準引力模型變數、文化因素的虛擬變數與貿易效果變數,使用2000年至2011年東亞國家的panel data觀察東亞地區的汽車貿易市場受到的影響。此外,將進一步探討東協與中國自由貿易協定對於台灣貿易流量的影響。 本研究結果如下:一、由於東協內部成員的經濟發展程度不同,ACFTA的降稅時程與產品清單複雜。二、ACFTA的汽車產業原產地規則限制性屬於中等。三、汽車產業原產地規則對貿易出口值所造成的負面效果越來越小,模型驗證原產地規則的學習效果。四、東亞地區的汽車出口貿易因中國、日本及韓國與東協簽署協定而顯著地增加,且ACFTA淨貿易效果為正。五、ACFTA對台灣的淨貿易效果為正。

並列摘要


The pace of regional development in East Asia has accelerated over the past few decades. In this trend of regional integration, the issues of ASEAN Plus One, ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN plus six and the like cannot be overemphasized. Given that Taiwan's main trade partners in recent years have become China and ASEAN, this study targets the free trade agreements signed by ASEAN and China as research subjects, and focuses on rules of origin used to determine the origin of goods. The trade gravity model proposed by Tinbergen(1962) and Poyhonen(1963) is applied in this study. The restrictiveness of rules of origin of different FTAs is estimated by the restrictive index constructed by Estevadeordal (2000). The index of automotive products rules of origin, the standard gravity model variables, cultural dummy variables and trade effects variables are combined in the empirical model to capture significant factors of the fluctuation in trade. By using panel data of east asian countries between year 2000-2011, we aspire to observe and analyze the automotive trade market. In addition, we will further explore the impact on trade flows of Taiwan by ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement. The results of this study are as follows. (1) Since the levels of economic development of ASEAN members are tremendously different, the product list and the tariff reduction process in ACFTA are therefore complex and sophisticated. (2) The restrictiveness of rules of origin of automotive industry in ACFTA is comparatively moderate. (3) The negative effect of automotive industry rules of origin on value of export has diminished over time, proving that there was rules of origin learning effect in East Asia. (4) The automotive exports in East Asian countries increase significantly with ACFTA, AJCEP and AKFTA coming into effect. Also, the net trade effect of ACFTA is positive. (5) The net trade effect of ACFTA on Taiwan is significantly positive.

參考文獻


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