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  • 學位論文

軌道運輸系統時刻表績效評估系統之研發與建立

Development of the Timetable Performance Evaluation System for Rail Transportation

指導教授 : 賴勇成
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摘要


時刻表是軌道運輸服務最高的營運準則,而如何衡量一個的時刻表績效是營運單位的重要課題,對於軌道運輸所提供的服務來說,績效的衡量可從營運者、旅客亦或是車輛觀點,本研究自營運單位的角度以時刻表的效率與穩定程度來定義時刻表之績效,高使用效率代表有效的利用軌道資源,而穩定的時刻表在系統發生意外時能迅速的回復至正常狀態,然而,密集的班次有時反而造成可靠度的下降,因此效率與穩定度之間存在一權衡關係。本研究結合可靠度分析、容量分析及風險分析的方法概念,建立一套時刻表績效評估系統,可協助營運單位比較不同時刻表之間的績效差異,亦可辨識系統中不穩定的時段與路段。 過去的研究常以延滯時間評估時刻表的穩定度,但這種方法可能會有低估或高估穩定度的可能,因此,李宗晏(2010)自容量的角度提出「回復時間」的概念,即系統發生意外狀況後排除受影響的列車所需的時間,其研究以時刻表在一天營運下的「期望回復時間」作為指標;但由於行車事故的隨機特性,營運時回復時間未必會是平均值,本研究進一步分析回復時間的不確定性,以建立完整的時刻表評估系統,提出四個評估指標:使用效率、期望回復時間、回復時間標準差以及失效機率,研究中承襲回復時間的概念,除修正其模式外,亦建立蒙地卡羅模擬模式,提出新的評估指標衡量回復時間的不確定性,期望以此系統提供營運業者在進行時刻表建構設計時更彈性的資訊作為參考。 在案例分析中,本研究以實際臺鐵北部時刻表透過四個評估指標進行分析,發現穩定度的瓶頸時空點發生在晨峰與昏峰時段及汐止至七堵區間,若進一步比較改點前後,結果顯示上下行的時刻表在改點後都提高了使用率,而改點後上行時刻表的穩定度指標都顯示穩定度下降的情況,但在改點後下行時刻表只有期望回復時間增加,其標準差及失效機率卻下降,顯示回復時間的出現較為集中,改點前在一個標準差的範圍下反而會出現較高的回復時間,而失效機率則直接說明高回復時間的出現機率較低,因此相較於上行時刻表,改點後下行時刻表的穩定度不必然較差。透過這些指標的分析,營運業者可在改點決策上有更精確的資訊,並透過持續的修正與績效分析協助提升時刻表之績效,以確保營運單位提供的服務能滿足運輸需求持續的成長且維持優良的服務品質。

並列摘要


Reliable railway operation is a result of a well-designed timetable. A robust and stable timetable should incorporate an appropriate level of slacks in order to recover the system from the unexpected disruption to the normal state. However, due to the high cost of railway infrastructure, a surplus slack can incur an unexpected expense and waste. Consequently, the evaluation of timetable stability and efficiency is important, since there is a trade-off between the railway capacity, capacity utilization and stability. Most of the previous studies evaluated timetable stability with delay index, while Li (2010) considered this index may either over or underestimate the stability and thus proposed to use recovery time from the aspect of railway capacity. Recovery time is the amount of time to clear out the disrupted scheduled trains and return to the normal state. Li calculated the expected recovery time of timetable as the stability index. However, due to the uncertainty of disturbance, the inherently randomness of recovery time should be further studied in order to provide a flexible evaluation result. In this research, a timetable performance evaluation system is developed with four indices, including efficiency, expected recovery time, standard deviation of recovery time and failure probability. And the Monte Carlo simulation accounted for the uncertainty of recovery time is also developed. A case study of Taiwan Railway Administration (TRA) before and after the timetable revision on September 28th, 2012 was applied. The evaluation results showed that the bottlenecks of the stability are on peak periods and Xizhi to Qidu section. The analysis also showed that after the revision, the efficiency of capacity utilization increased. This led to the decrease of stability of northbound timetable, but not all the stability indices of southbound timetable indicated a worse result. With the evaluation of these four indices, accurate information can be provided to the railway agency in the timetable planning process so as to provide reliable and robust services to their customers, and return on shareholders’ investment.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


吳軒宇(2013)。軌道系統營運穩定度與效率平衡點研析〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2013.00848

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