本研究乃在探討應用平衡計分卡於績效評估的有效性,著重於平衡計分卡四個構面各指標間領先、落後之因果關係、反應時間,以及對於財務指標之預測能力。 本論文採實證研究之方法,藉由蒐集個案銀行125間分行四年期間之時間序列資料,透過結構方程模式(structural equation modeling ) 和迴歸分析等統計方法,對個案銀行分行之各項指標進行相關分析。研究目的為分析平衡計分卡各構面間是否具有因果關係,以及運用時間序列資料之分析,實際探討四個構面各指標落後反應時間之問題,並比較非財務指標與傳統財務指標對於財務指標之預測能力。 研究結果顯示:(1) 個案銀行之平衡計分卡四個構面間僅某些指標具有正向且顯著的關係,此相關性與本研究提出之平衡計分卡理論架構不完全相符。(2)前期非財務指標中只有兩項指標能預測後期財務績效,但前期財務指標均能預測後期財務績效,且其預測能力較前期非財務指標較高。
This paper investigates the effectiveness of adopting balanced scorecard in performance evaluation. It focuses on the leading/lagging relationships between financial and non-financial performance measures. Four year data from the 125 branches of a local commercial bank in Taiwan were collected for empirical tests. A structural equation model is constructed to analyze the causal relationships among the chosen BSC measures. It also tests the lagging effects of non-financial measures on financial measures. Moreover, regression analysis is used to compare the predicting power of past financial and non-financial measures for future financial performance. Major findings of this study are: (1) The casual relationship between non-financial and financial dimensions as posited by the BSC theory is only partial supported. Only two of the non-financial measures have positive leading effects on financial measures. (2) Both financial and non-financial measures have predicting power for future financial performance. However, the financial measures have more predicting power for future financial performance than the non-financial measures.
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