長期照護保險脫退因素之探討

The determinants of lapse in the long term care insurance

吳美玲(Mei-Ling Wu)

指導教授 ： 何佳玲

淡江大學/商管學院/保險學系保險經營碩士在職專班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00174

摘要

臺灣人口老化速度恐為世界第一，預估於2018年老人人口比率即達到14%，進入「高齡社會」，2025年達到20%，進入「超高齡社會」。因應此一趨勢，政府陸續制定並推出相關長照政策，國人為彌補其不足自行購買商業保險以填補保障缺口。近年來長期照護保險市場蓬勃發展，然而卻存在許多長期照護保單脫退（停效、解約或失效）的情況，此除影響保單持有人權益外，大量之保單脫退亦將造成保險公司現金流風險，進而影響壽險業之經營安全。本研究藉由近20年來不同時期推出之長期照護保單，利用羅吉斯迴歸分析被保險人特性、產品因素及行銷因素(含行銷通路與業務員特性)以期了解影響保單脫退之關鍵因素，實證結果顯示，在被保險人特性：性別、年齡、居住區域、職業類別與保單脫退率具顯著關聯性。如年輕保戶相較於年長者有較高脫退率、非都會區相較都會地區有較高脫退率。在產品因素：繳費方式、繳法別、有無保單貸款、商品保障內容與保單脫退率具顯著關聯性。如派員收費相較於銀行轉帳繳費有較高脫退率、採取季繳繳費之脫退率高於月繳件。在行銷因素(行銷通路與業務員特性)：行銷通路、業務員性別、教育程度、年齡與保單脫退率具顯著關聯性。如行銷通路採銀行保代相較於保險公司直屬業務員有較高脫退率、業務員教育程度較高者其保單脫退機率較低。冀透過本研究結果提供保險公司參卓，以利商品規劃並制定相關管理預警機制。

關鍵字

保單脫退 ； 停效 ； 解約 ； 失效 ； 長期照護保險

並列摘要

Taiwan is facing the acute problem of aging population, the result of a low fertility rate and a longer life span that make the aging population ratio to figure 14% approximately in 2018 on course getting into the “aging society” and reach to 20% in 2025 and to an “aged society”. For coping with the trend, the Government has developed relevant social policies gradually but it seemed still insufficient so that many people make up their comprehensive security by self-purchasing commercial insurance to fill the gap.
The long-term care insurance market is booming in recent years but did facing the problems of policy lapse (surrender, terminated or invalidated), it is not only affecting the rights of policyholders but also causing a large number of policy lapse. The most importantly is to bring about the risk of cash flow and the operation for insurance company. This paper is utilized the information of long-term care policies in different period for the past 20 years and analyzes the characteristics of the insured, product and marketing factors (including marketing channels and the characteristics of salesman) by using Logistic Regression for better understanding the determinants of policy lapse.
The empirical results show as follows. Insured characteristic such as gender, age, living area, occupational category have significant bound up with lapse rate. For example, younger policyholder has a higher lapse rate compare with elderly policyholder, non-city areas is higher than the urban. Product factors such as payment method, with/without policy loans, and insurance coverage are significantly related to lapse rate. For example, dispatched charges a higher lapse rate compared with the bank transfer payment, and quarterly payment is higher than monthly payment. Marketing factors (marketing channels and characteristics of saleman) such as marketing channels, sales gender, education, and age are significantly related to lapses rate. For exmaple, the marketing channel of bancinsurance agent has a higher policy lapse rate compare with direct sales of insurance company. The higher level of education has a lower rate of policy lapses. Expecting the results of this study can provide reference to insurance company for facilitating products line development and establishing early warning mechanism.

並列關鍵字

policy lapse ； surrender ； termination ； long term care insurance

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