免簽證對日本觀光的影響-2003-2015年36個國家追蹤資料分析

The Effects of Visa Facilitation on Inbound Tourism in Japan- Panel analysis based on the 36 Countries within 2003-2015 year

阮瓊儀(Chiung-Yi Juan)

指導教授 ： 小山直則

淡江大學/國際研究學院/亞洲研究所碩士班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00360

摘要

高井典子、赤堀浩一指出，日本產業的國際化，導致日本的國內雇用空洞化的課題引起的可能性。工廠向海外移出，使日本國內失去了工作機會。日本經濟發展是非常緊急的課題。小泉總理在2002年提出「觀光立國」的政策。特別是免簽證國家的增加和入境手續的放寬。
學者中澤榮一（2009）以2003年之日本旅遊活動 （Visit Japan Campaign：VJC）的入境影響與效果作為分析之主體，並加以實證。本論文以日本的免簽政策為研究分析為主體，結合日本與訪日觀光客數（自然對數），及其對方國之實質GDP（自然對數）、日本與對方國之距離（自然對數）、311東日本大地震因素等共四個變數，並收集整理2003年至2015年36個國家之追蹤資料，並以重力模型來分析並實證對訪日觀光之影響。本論文經以重力模型分析實證之結果，日本簽訂免簽政策對訪日觀光客之影響效果符合假設之推論，在推進觀光施政中，可以得到正面影響之效果。

關鍵字

訪日觀光客 ； 免簽政策 ； 重力模型 ； 追蹤資料分析

並列摘要

Noriko Takai-Tokunaga and Koichi Akahori pointed out that the internationalization of Japanese industry might have caused the hollowing-out of domestic employment. Factories moved abroad, leading to the job losses in Japan. The economic development in Japan was a very urgent issue. In 2002, Prime Minister Koizumi proposed “Visit Japan Campaign,” which included especially the increase of the number of visa-free countries and the extension of entry formalities.
Eiichi Nakazawa (2009) analyzed and verified the impact and effects of the entry of Visit Japan Campaign (VJC) in 2003. This study analyzed Japan’s visa-free policy and combined 5 variables, including the number of visitors from and to Japan (natural logarithm), the real gross domestic product (GDP) of counterpart countries (natural logarithm), the distance between Japan and counterpart countries (natural logarithm), the visa-free policy, and the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. Panel data of 36 countries from 2003 to 2015 were also collected and collated, and the Gravity Model was used to analyze and verify their impact on the visits to Japan. The results showed that the impact of Japan’s visa-free policy on international tourists corresponded with the argument of the hypothesis, and positive influences would be gotten during the process of tourism policy implementation.

並列關鍵字

Inbound Tourism in Japan ； The Effects of Visa Facilitation ； Gravity Model ； Panel data

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