應用賽局理論研擬國道客運與台鐵之競爭策略
-以高速鐵路通車為例

因鐵路系統票價合理、到達目的地的準點性高、搭乘方便等優點，使得台鐵具有較穩定的客源。然而台鐵的車種過於複雜、誤點日趨嚴重、再加上旅客對時間價值的重要性提高，使得台鐵的營運再度遇到瓶頸，未來同屬軌道運輸的高鐵即將在今年10月營運通車，勢必對現在台鐵旅客運輸再遭受嚴重的衝擊。故台鐵將如何研擬競爭策略，實為重要的課題。自從交通部於民國84年開放多條國道客運路線予客運業者經營後，許多新興客運業者紛紛加入競爭行列。然而在相互競爭下，至今只剩少數幾家國道客運公司持續經營。為此，各國道客運業者未來是否有可能朝向整合合作的方式經營，該如何擬定競爭策略，以增加自己的競爭力，實為當前業者所關心的課題。此外，各運輸業者在作決策時，必需考慮其它競爭者，甚至其它競爭運具的決策行為。為此，本研究應用充分訊息下靜態之非合作賽局與合作賽局理論，來建構各競爭運具在高速鐵路加入營運通車後的競爭模式，以求解各競爭運具之均衡票價；另外應用合作賽局理論之定義與求解方式，來建構各國道客運公司在聯營 (pool)合作型態下之報酬函數與票價競爭之均衡求解。研究內容包括：1) 建立各競爭運具、台鐵與過國道客運之報酬函數；2) 求解各競爭運具在高鐵通車後之均衡票價；3) 求解各國道客運公司之間聯營 (pool)合作型態下之均衡票價；4) 使用Mathematica軟體求夏普利值和核仁，以提供國道客運業者於合作賽局情境下分配利潤之依據；5)求解台鐵採艙位列車分等後之均衡票價；6)探討高鐵與台鐵共站的合作轉乘策略；以提供主管機關制定政策之參考。

關鍵字

國道客運；高速鐵路；台鐵；合作靜態賽局；非合作賽局

並列摘要

Currently, Taiwan Railway (TR) has the advantages of shorter travel time and more energy efficient in comparison with other highway transportation modes. However, these advantages will soon be taken by Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR). As one of the major competitors in the transportation market of Taiwan western corridor, TR has to set up new operation strategies in competing with THSR. To enhance the competitiveness of TR, the strategies may include: 1) providing more commuting train services for commuters and transfer passengers at the major THSR stations; and 2) resetting the optimal pricing and scheduling strategies for long-distance train services to cope with the new challenges bought by THSR. The deregulation of freeway bus services issued by Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) in 1995 has produced many new competitors in the market. Nowadays there are only a few survivors in the highly competitive market. Meanwhile, Taiwan High-Speed Railway, a new competitor that offers fast, reliable, and frequent services, is scheduled to operate at the end of 2005, which will cause great impact on the transportation market of Taiwan’s western corridor. As a result, cooperative strategies among freeway buses will affect the market shares and profits of these companies in the near future. In this study, we apply non-cooperative game and cooperative game approach to analyze the interaction between the High-speed railway､Taiwan Railway and freeway buses and employ cooperative game to resolve the cooperative strategies among freeway bus companies. Through the construction of the payoff functions and the solutions of market equilibrium, we find the optimal pricing strategies for freeway buses under various cooperative scenarios. The content of the study includes: 1) modeling the profit functions for modes of transportation､Taiwan Railway and freeway bus companies; 2) solving optimal modes of transportation fares under market equilibrium; 3) solving optimal bus in the pool of fares under market equilibrium; 4) applying software MATHEMATICA to solve the Shapley values and Nucleolus, which provide the guidance of profit-sharing in the cooperative game; 5) solving the market equilibrium under various game scenarios; and 6) analyzing the changes of consumer surplus and payoffs before and after the operations of THSR.

並列關鍵字

Freeway buses ； Railway ； High-speed Rail ； Cooperative and Non-cooperative games

參考文獻

19. 張亦寬(民92)，以雙層次數學規劃建構旅客需求導向之票價設計模式-以台灣高鐵為例，國立成功大學交通管理學系碩博士論文。

9. 林昭輝(民92)，台鐵售票曲線之型態分析，國立成功大學交通管理學系碩博士論文。

22. 楊濃代(民91)，台鐵捷運化營運分析方法探討，國立成功大學/土木工程學系碩博士論文。

27. Curiel I (1997) , “Cooperative Game Theory and Applications”, Kluwer Academic Press, Boston.

28. Hensher, D.A. (1997) “A Practical Approach to Identifying the Market Potential for High-Speed Rail: A Case Study in the Sydney-Canberra Corridor,” Transportation Research, Vol. 31A, No. 6, pp. 431-446.

國際替代計量

應用賽局理論研擬國道客運與台鐵之競爭策略 -以高速鐵路通車為例

全文下載

主題瀏覽