技術進步對台灣和日本的經濟成長之影響

The Influence of Technical Progress on Economic Growth in Taiwan and Japan

廖珮吟(Pei-In Liao)

指導教授 ： 任燿廷

淡江大學/國際研究學院/日本研究所碩士班/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2007.00511

摘要

東亞經濟在第二次世界大戰之後，之所以能長期維持高度經濟成長的其中一個主要原因為總要素生產力的提升。然而，隨著全球化的進展，經濟影響力的無國界化，再加上各國經濟環境的變化，國際情勢的瞬息萬變使得各國的經濟成長內涵變得難以掌握。因此，首先，本研究以1990年代以後的台灣和日本的總體經濟為中心，以Solow的總要素生產力分析台日的經濟動向，並加以比較，深入探討總要素生產力的變動是否仍為影響兩國經濟成長的主要原因。其次，並將台灣和日本的總要素生產力進行分解，探究兩國總要素生產力的內涵。
經由本研究的實證結果，發現1990年代以後，台灣和日本的經濟成長幅度均較1990年代以前小，此外，再深入探討兩國經濟成長的主要原因，發現資本投入對台灣和日本的經濟成長貢獻度最大，其次才是總要素生產力。但是，2002年以後，總要素生產力再次成為台灣經濟成長的主要原因。而總要素生產力有隨著台灣和日本的經濟成長率變動的傾向，是兩國經濟成長速度減緩的共同主要原因。此外，勞動生產力的低落是使日本在1990年代以後經濟鈍化的另一個主要原因。
此外，接著針對影響總要素生產力水準的各種可能因素進行迴歸分析。回歸分析結果顯示，研究開發經費佔GDP的比率年年增加的情況下，對總要素生產力有明顯的提升效果。此外，台灣企業的專利許可數、日本人對外國人的專利許可數這兩項與專利相關的因素，對台日的總要素生產力雖均無顯著性，但其係數顯示與總要素生產力為正相關。另一方面，研究者對千人人口比率的增加、外國直接投資規模的擴大這兩項因素對台灣和日本的總要素生產力有明顯的負相關。而日本的技術貿易收支比與總要素生產力有明顯的正相關，顯示出隨著技術出口的增加，對日本的總要素生產力也有提升效果。另一方面，台灣的技術貿易收支比雖無顯著性，但其係數顯示技術進口似乎對台灣的總要素生產力的提升是有幫助的。此外，台灣的出口額與總要素生產力也呈現正相關，並具有顯著性。而台灣的關稅佔GDP比率雖不具有顯著性，但其係數顯示出在國內市場愈封閉的情況下，似乎對台灣的總要素生產力的提升越有幫助。
經由以上的實證結果，本研究提出以下見解：在勞動生產力低落與少子高齡化的趨勢下，日本應加強勞動品質的提升、提高每人勞動生產力、活用高齡人口的勞動力。除此之外，在今日的服務業經濟中，台日均應更注重資本累積，以及強化智慧財產權以提升總要素生產
力，而在提升台灣和日本的總要素生產力上，應著重於如何提升研究者的品質、如何使研究者發揮其應有的能力，以及外國對內直接投資的環境與制度的整備，也是今後不可忽略的重要課題。

關鍵字

經濟成長 ； 總要素生產力 ； 技術進步 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

The increasing of total factor productivity (TFP) is one of the dominate factors that maintain a long-term high economic growth rate of East-Asia. However, because of accelerating globalization, boundary less economy, and dynamic economic environment of each country, it is hard to catch the essence of the economic growth of different countries. As a result, this research first examines the development of macroeconomic of Taiwan and Japan by the total factor productivity model provided by Solow. After conducting a deep comparison between these two countries, we may tell whether the TFP is the dominant factor of the economic growth. Finally, this research analyzes the TFP of both countries into details and examines the essence of TFP.
According on the empirical finding, the growth rates of Taiwan and Japan after 1990s are smaller than those before 1990s. After examining the dominant factor of economic growth of both counties, we found that the capital investment has the most significant effect, while TFP has the second significant effect. However, after 2002, TFP again become the most significant variable. The TFP has a tendency to fluctuate with the economic growth rate of Taiwan and Japan, which is the common dominate factor of the stagnation. Additionally, the decreasing of labor productivity is another dominate factor of the economic depression of Japan in 1990s
So, we applied a series of regression analysis to analyze all possible variables of TFP. According to the statistic result, we find the following facts. First, the TFP increased significantly under the condition of increasing ratio of R&D expanse to GDP, Second, two patent-related variables, number of patent held by Taiwanese enterprise and number of Japan to foreign patent, are proved to be insignificant positive variables to the TFP of Taiwan and Japan. Third, the result shows that the increasing population and increasing foreign direct investment have significant negative effect on TFP of Taiwan and Japan. Fourth, the technology trade balance have significant positive effect on TFP, which shows that as the technology export increases, the TFP of Japan will increase as well. Fifth, although the technology trade balance of Taiwan has insignificant effect, it seems that technology import may slightly increasing TFP of Taiwan. Sixth, the export figures have significant positive effect on TFP. Seventh, although the ratio of tariff duties to GDP has insignificant effect, it seems that tariff duties may benefit the increasing of TFP as the domestic market becomes more closed.
Based on the empirical finding above, the following conclusions have been reached: under the trend of decreasing labor productivity, low birth rate and aging society, Japan should aim to improve the quality of labor, to leverage the labor force of aged people, and to increase labor productivity. In order to improve the TFP of Taiwan and Japan, it is curial to improve the quality of researcher and to make the best possible use of these researchers. Moreover, it is also indispensable to refine the investment environment and policy of foreign direct investment.

並列關鍵字

economic growth ； total factor productivity ； technology progress ； regression analysis

參考文獻

吳惠林，傅祖壇（2002）《刑幕寰先生學術論文集＜二＞》，初版，台北：中華研究院經濟研究所。

林安樂（2001）《台灣總要素生產力變動分析》，初版，台北：中華經濟研究院。

刑慕寰（1986）《台灣經濟成長與結構變動的進一步觀察－顧志耐教授遺著的延伸與推展》，初版，台北：中華經濟研究院。

蔡錫勲(2003)『日本企業の経営戦略―どうなる、日本企業！日の出か、日没か？』第1版、台北：致良出版社。

Michael, P. T and Stephen, C. S.(2005) Economic Development, Longman Group United Kingdom.