台灣地方政府公共支出對經濟成長之影響

The Impact of Local Government Spending on Economic Growth in Taiwan

黃柄豪(Bing-Hao Huang)

指導教授 ： 單珮玲

淡江大學/商管學院/會計學系碩士班/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.00787

摘要

地方政府公共支出規模對於地方經濟成長，往往與公共支出性質有密切關聯性；再者，亦可能受到地方人口成長及黨派性政治因素等影響。據此，本文以臺灣地區20個縣市政府為研究對象，採用橫斷面與時間序列之追蹤資料 (panel data)分析方法進行實證，以驗證不同性質的公共支出規模是否符合Barro (1990)與Keyness學說。先依據Barro的觀點，分析不同性質的公共支出，另加入人口與黨派性政治變數對於地方經濟的影響；再依Keyness學說的主張，增列地方政府總支出變數於模型中，觀察其是否符合有效需求理論。
本文研究結果顯示，各縣市政府生產性支出對地方經濟成長的影響程度顯著，且是正向關係，此結果相當符合經濟理論，表示投入生產性支出愈多，愈有助於地方經濟成長；非生產性支出呈現正相關的估計結果，可推論地方政府的非生產性支出不致影響私人的生產函數時，非生產性支出增加，應是僅導致地方居民的租稅負擔增加，故其對於經濟成長變動相較低於政府生產性支出對於經濟成長的變動，此一結果符合Barro的理論模型；其他支出亦存在正向關係具統計顯著性，此與預期結果相符合；至於，地方政府總支出則呈現顯著負相關，這結果並不符合凱因斯有效需求理論，推論在於直轄市與各縣市的支出結構不同，觀察歷年直轄市（各區域）地方政府的生產性支出趨勢，大抵呈現上升（下降）趨勢，非生產性與其他支出為下降（上升）趨勢，是以，未來各區域地方政府宜改善公共支出結構，提高生產性支出，並撙節非生產性與其他支出。

關鍵字

公共支出 ； 生產性支出 ； 非生產性支出 ； 有效需求理論

並列摘要

Local government expenditure offen have a close relationship with economic growth. Furthermore, it also be affected by population growth and political factors. In this paper, 20 local government area of Taiwan as the research object. We verified whether the different nature of the public expenditure scale is consistent with Barro (1990) and Keyness theory by panel data analysis method. According to Barro's point of view, we analyze the different nature of the public expenditure, population and other political parties to join the variables affect the local economy. Then according to theory of Keyness, we add local government expenditure variables to the model, to observe whether it is consistent with the theory of effective demand.
Our conclusion point out that productive expenditure of the local government has remarkable effect on local economic growth, and positive relationship. The result is quite consistent with economic theory. More productive expenditure can promote economic growth. Unproductive expenditure has effect in local economic growth. We deduce that unproductive expenditure is no effect on private production. Local tax burden would be increased when unproductive expenditure increasing. the change of unproductive expenditure of government on economic growth is lower than the change of productive expenditure of government on economic growth. This result is consistent with the theoretical model of Barro. Other expenditure also has remarkable effect on local economic growth. Expected results are consistent with our prediction.
Local government total expenditure isn’t come up theory of Keyness. we infer that expenditure in municipal cities is different from other cities. In the few past years, we can find out that productive expenditure in the Non-municipal cities is getting higher but in municipal cities getting lower, unproductive expenditure in municipal cities getting lower but getting higher in Non- municipal cities. Population growth and Political factors don’t have statistical significant. In our recommendation, Local government would improve public expenditure structure, reduce unproductive expenditure and other expenditure.

並列關鍵字

Public Expenditure ； Productive Expenditure ； Unproductive Expenditure ； Effective Demand

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