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  • 學位論文

北美自由貿易協定對美國的個人所得以及就業之影響─追蹤資料(Panel Data)分析

The Effect of NAFTA on U.S. Personal Incomes and Employment - A Panel Data Analysis

指導教授 : 柯大衛

摘要


北美自由貿易協定﹝North American Free Trade Agreement,NAFTA﹞自一九九四年一月一日起生效至今已屆滿十五週年,當年柯林頓總統在週邊協定簽署典禮致詞時一再地強調在NAFTA生效的第一年會創造二十萬個工作機會,頭五年便可以創造一百萬個工作機會,加上美國國際貿易委員會在一九九二年發布的研究指出NAFTA將可使美國的實質GDP每年增加約百分之零點五,就業機會每年可增加百分之零點一至百分之二點五,讓筆者對十五年來NAFTA對美國經濟發展所造成的影響感到相當有興趣。 就美、加、墨之間的貿易量以及外資注入成長的幅度來看,NAFTA的運作基本上可以說是相當成功的。有鑑於此,本論文將以各州的失業率、平均國民所得以及州生產毛額為主,將數據統整為追蹤資料的型態,並使用普通最小平方法和隨機效果模型來進行實證研究,從不同的角度探討NAFTA對美國經濟之影響。 在理論基礎的部份,本文以古典國際貿易理論中的「分工論」、「絕對利益理論」以及近代的「要素稟賦理論」來解釋自由貿易如何讓進行貿易的國家提升福利,變得更為富有,以及NAFTA是如何在三個經濟實力落差懸殊的國家之間成功的整合,最後再加上「引力模型」之運用,闡述國與國之間的貿易量會因為兩國之間的經濟實力大小以及地理位置之相對距離遠近而不同。因此,整合上述之理論,本論文之研究目的有兩點:(一) NAFTA對美國與加、墨之十五個交界州經濟發展的影響是否較為顯著? (二) 從贊成州和反對州的實證結果探討各州參議員當初是否有以所屬州之利益為優先考量來進行投票? 由實證的結果得知,與加拿大交界州不論是在失業率變化、平均國民所得成長率亦或是州平均生產毛額成長率,在NAFTA生效後均無顯著的成長。至於與墨西哥交界州不僅在失業率變化則有顯著的下降趨勢,在平均國民所得成長率和州平均生產毛額成長率的部份也都呈現正成長之趨勢。而最後贊成州和反對州的實證結果,也確實是對各州參議員是否有以所屬州之利益為考量來進行投票提供了正面且有利的證據。

並列摘要


It has been 15 years since North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in January 1994. When President Clinton gave remarks at signing of NAFTA side agreements, he promised that NAFTA will create 200,000 jobs within the U.S. in the first two years of its effect, as well as generating another 1 million jobs three years later. Moreover, the research released by United States International Trade Commission in 1992 indicates that NAFTA will help both the U.S. real Gross Domestic Product and employment rate rise 5 percent per year and 0.1 to 2.5 percent. However, 15 years has passed, but the only question still exists. “How is the benefit of NAFTA to the U.S.?” According to the huge growth of trade and Foreign Direct Investment among the three nations, NAFTA seems like a success. Nevertheless, instead of looking at trade and FDI, this research aims to figure out NAFTA’s effect to the U.S. by applying regression analysis to analyze unemployment rate, personal income, and Gross State Product. These data are organized into a panel data and analyzed by Ordinary Least Square and Random Effect Model. The fundamental theories that back this thesis up can be divided into two categories, the classical theory of international trade and gravity model. The classical theory of international trade including division of labor, the theory of absolute advantage, the theory of comparative advantage, and theory of factor endowment explain that how do countries become better of after they trade with each other, as well as how do NAFTA integrate successfully in such a great economic disparity. Furthermore, in the sense of gravity model, the geographical distance and the difference of economic masses of two different countries can really influence the trade between them. To sum up, the main purposes of this research are, firstly, are the benefits of NAFTA to the fifteen border states much more significant than non-border states? Secondly, did those senators really concerns about the interest of their own states before they cast the vote? Finally, according to the result of the empirical work, border states to Canada has barely benefited from NAFTA. On the contrary, border states to Mexico has fairly performed on their economic growth since NAFTA took effect in 1994. The change of unemployment rate has a very significant drop, and both personal income and GSP have a rather small but positive growth. Beside, the result based on the states of vote for and vote against NAFTA does certainly provide very strong evidence that most of the senators did concern about their state interest before they cast the vote.

參考文獻


林漢智。《北美自由貿易協定對墨西哥農業的影響》。台北:淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所,2008。
韋天翔。《北美自由貿易協定對墨西哥汽車工業之影響》。台北:淡江大學拉丁美洲研究所,2002。
陳詩香。《北美自由貿易區之研究》。東海大學政治學研究所,1992。
Hufbauer, and Clyde, Gary. NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges. Washington : Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2005.
Morales, Rebecca. Flexible Production: Restructuring of the International Automobile Industry. Cambridge: Polity Press, 1994, p.58.

被引用紀錄


鄭詒安(2013)。台商在中國大陸獲利情況之實證研究兼論ECFA的可能影響〔碩士論文,國立清華大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6843%2fNTHU.2013.00639

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