金融槓桿對景氣循環的影響

The impact of financial leverage on business cycle

林岭子(LINGZI LIN)

指導教授 ： 胡登淵

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00898

摘要

近年來，金融槓桿影響實體經濟是受人注目的熱議話題，也逐漸成為經濟政策的工具，雖已有些許相關理論發展但實證分析卻仍付諸闕如。有鑒於此，本研究運用向量自我迴歸模型分析美國金融部門之槓桿成長率對景氣循環的影響，並進一步通過運用全球向量自我迴歸模型探討美國金融槓桿對經濟的衝擊是否會外溢，從而影響其它國家。本研究主要發現金融槓桿成長率上升會對美國景氣循環約於二年後造成負向影響，也會對世界其它主要經濟體產生持續一段期間的負向衝擊。本研究的結果支持美國金融槓桿的確在景氣循環中扮演重要角色。

關鍵字

金融槓桿 ； 景氣循環

並列摘要

This study aims to investigate the impact of leverage on business cycle in the U.S.A. using the vector autoregressive model and more broadly to examine its spillover effects on 33 countries, mainly including OECD countries, using the global vector autoregressive model. The main findings indicate that the leverage growth has negative impact on business cycle in the U.S.A. and the negative impact spreads into most OECD countries. The evidence suggests that the leverage growth shocks play an important role as the driving force behind business cycle.

並列關鍵字

leverage ； business cycle

參考文獻

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