長壽風險對不同年齡層家計單位消費及投資決策之動態分析

The dynamic analysis of longevity risk on investment and consumption decisions of different age households.

李奕慧(Yi-Hui Lee)

指導教授 ： 田峻吉

淡江大學/商學院/保險學系保險經營碩士班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.01007

摘要

隨著人類壽命不斷延長，在財富有限下，家計單位將會透過調整其消費及投資決策以因應，而不同年齡層家計單位之決策行為亦有所差異。因此本研究藉由實驗經濟學之方式，以觀察長壽風險因素對不同年齡層家計單位消費和投資決策之關係。
本研究結合問卷資訊與實驗決策，模擬有無考慮長壽風險下之情境，分析家計單位於退休前後和全部期間的消費與投資決策變化。受試者為已婚之家計單位，並分為30歲、40歲和50歲之年齡族群，以了解不同年齡群族對於長壽風險認知之差異。此外，亦繪製動態分析圖，以觀測在長壽風險因素下不同年齡層家計單位消費與投資決策的變化趨勢。
本研究結果顯示，(1)長壽風險因素與消費投資變化：在消費決策方面，由於習慣形成難以改變，因此消費決策之變化較不顯著；而在投資決策方面，家計單位中為女性、教育程度較高、子女數較多、預期壽命較低、遺產意願較高、工作收入較低、保健支出較高和風險趨避程度較高者，傾向增加無風險性資產比例而降低風險性資產比例以因應長壽風險。(2)就不同年齡家計單位對長壽風險認知之差異：與是否能完全理解長壽風險之意義和實驗操作有關，故於30歲家計單位解釋能力最好，40歲次之，50歲則較差。(3)至於消費及投資動態變化：30歲家計單位傾向在全部期間增加風險性資產比例而降低無風險性資產比例因應長壽風險；40歲和50歲家計單位傾向在退休前增加無風險性資產比例而降低風險性資產比例，退休後則增加風險性資產比例降低無風險資產比例因應長壽風險。

關鍵字

實驗經濟學 ； 長壽風險 ； 風險態度 ； 消費決策 ； 投資決策 ； 動態分析

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is using a questionnaire and experimental methodology to investigate the difference between varied age households who will change their consumption and investment plans when facing their longevity risk. In order to understand the difference of longevity risk awareness in different age households, the participants in this experiment who must be the head of a household, married, and divided thirty, forty and fifty years old into three different age groups. Furthermore, this paper also use the dynamic figure to analyze the change of consumption and investment decisions.
The main findings of this paper are described as follow. (1) Based on “Habit Formation”, households prefer to adjust their investment decisions rather than their consumption decisions in order to deal with longevity risk. Moreover, female households,with highly education level, more children, lower life expectancy, more bequest motivation, lower income, higher health-care expenditure and greater risk aversion tend to reduce their proportion of risky assets with a longevity risk. (2)With the difference of longevity risk awareness between different age households, they have the distinct behavior response to the longevity risk.(3) As for the changing of consumption and investment decisions, thirty year-old households tend to reduce their proportion of risky assets to deal with the longevity risk in whole life. Forty year-old and fifty year-old households tend to reduce their proportion of risk-free assets to deal with the longevity risk before retirement. Further, they tend to increase their risky asset holdings after retirement.

並列關鍵字

Experimental economics ； Longevity risk ； Risk attitude ； Consumption decisions ； Investment decisions ； Dynamic analysis

參考文獻

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