實施特種貨物及勞務稅對不動產市場的影響評估

The Effect of Luxury Tax on the Taiwanese Real Estate Market

陳璽豔(Hsi-Yen Chen)

指導教授 ： 李沃牆

淡江大學/商學院/財務金融學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.01211

摘要

本研究利用事件研究法(Event Study)探討在2011年4月15日立法院三讀通過施行特種貨物及勞務稅前後對於房地產市場以及營建類股之表現是否有異常報酬，並探討此政策之意函。實證結果顯示，實施特種貨物及勞務稅前後，整體房市成交量及價格已有量縮，初期價格微幅下修的情況，意涵政府實施特種貨物及勞務稅後，已能有效地打擊房市投機客。另外，透過事件研究法研究特種貨物及勞務稅實施前後對於營建股是否產生顯著的異常報酬？對上市的營建類股而言，其標準化的異常報酬率(SAR)在宣告日前50日即呈現負報酬情況，意謂特種貨物及勞務稅在宣告日前即有提前發酵的情形。反而在事件日後的報酬率變化較為平穩，但大部分是負報酬的情況。而標準化的累積異常報酬(SCAR)則在事件日前後均呈現負報酬，但上櫃營建股則有16日呈現正報酬率，這也意函對上櫃營建股衝擊較小。本文以為課徴特種貨物及勞務稅已實施近一年，利弊互見，政府有必要重新檢討之處。

關鍵字

特種貨物及勞務稅 ； 事件研究法 ； 標準化的異常報酬率

並列摘要

This study is an analysis of the Luxury Tax on the Taiwan Real Estate Market. An Event Study was used to analyze the Legislative Yuan’s third reading of the Luxury Tax (April 15 2011) to ascertain whether there is any abnormal return as well as to measure the effectiveness of the tax up to the present. The result of the empirical study showed that even prior to the implementation of the Luxury Tax, the housing turnover saw a significant reduction and housing values decreased slightly. This suggests the government has effectively restrained housing speculators. Furthermore, the case study also shows that there has been an abnormal return on construction stocks. For the companies listed in the construction sector, the SAR of the construction sector experienced negative abnormal returns from the 50 days before implementation of the Luxury Tax. This means that in response to the official implementation of the luxury tax by the government on April 15, 2011, the stock prices of the construction sector responded to the impact of the new tax law prior to its coming into effect. Instead, the abnormal returns were smoother and more steady after April 15, 2011. But most of the abnormal returns generated in absolute value of the construction sector were negative. The SCAR were all negative abnormal returns, regardless of whether they occurred before or after the April 15 implementation. For the OTC-listed companies in the construction sector, there were 16 days of positive abnormal return. This suggests the effects were far less severe for the OTC-listed companies in the construction sector.
While the Luxury Tax appears to be predominantly effective, it is the conclusion of this thesis that, after nearly a year of implementation, there are still some areas that need further attention, and that the government should therefore consider further amendments in order to make the tax even more effective.

並列關鍵字

Luxury Tax ； Event Study ； Abnormal Return

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